Back to top economic risk to the government
• Budget: tough decisions on niches
• Pensions: outline of the reform should remain
• Towards the compulsory insurance underwriting loss of autonomy
• The delicate capital increase
• 2011 upturn expected for the job
• Paris wants to reform the international monetary system
Of the four returnees that Nicolas Sarkozy has had to manage since his election, now is probably the trickiest. Very politically charged, the fall will also heavy economically. Number of reforms and sensitive issues facing the head of state and government who begin their Wednesday Cabinet reentry in a tense social climate.
Contrary to tradition, the vote of the Finance Bill 2011 will not be the first meeting of the economic return.It will be preceded by consideration of the Assembly, from September 7, the pension reform. The fiercely contested between a Labour Minister, Eric Woerth, weakened by the controversies that have continued over the summer, and an opposition determined to block any progress, including the extension to 62 years of retirement age.
But the pressure in this landmark case – the Head of State intends to establish his image as a reformer, especially with financial markets – especially coming from the street. Unions, braced against a reform they consider "unfair and ineffective", the French call en masse to protest on September 7. A mobilization that looks very well attended, in the street, transport and some public services where strikes were not hard to exclude. This day of action will not be the last.Meeting Monday at FSU, the unions agreed to see the 8 "decide how to proceed quickly, probably before September 29, when a euromanifestation against the austerity policies.
Behind the social issues lies the question of growth. For despite the increase of 0.6% of GDP in the second quarter, the horizon remains uncertain. And the downward revision of 0.5 percentage points of growth for 2011, together with further cuts in public spending and tax loopholes, reflects these uncertainties. "France has suffered a negative shock with its strong and deep recession of 2008 and 2009, says Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natexis Asset Management. A policy is too restrictive in order to quickly rebalance public finances will penalize the economy. "The paradox of this situation is summarized by the rating agency Moody's.This concern, last week, the deteriorating situation of public finances States rated "AAA", inviting them to structural reforms to rebalance their accounts. On Monday, the same agency cautioned, however, put the European states against a too rigorous, which could negatively affect their growth and influence their debt. In short, the government must practice strict management of public finances without too strict. A delicate balancing act …
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Budget: tough decisions on niches