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Sudden brake on the French economy. The second quarter growth should be two times less than anticipated previously Banque de France (BDF), the institution announced Friday. It reduced its growth forecast to 0.2% for the period April to June, against 0.4% previously and 0.5% in its first estimate. The government expects growth of 2% over the year.

This revision severe downward is motivated by recent activity indicators published by the monetary institution. She recorded a decline in June industrial output (4 points to 99 points) and a slower growth in services (-1 points 99 points). The activity, however, should be stabilizing, according to forecasts from the BoF.

Reduced consumption

"The growth in the second quarter will be much less impressive than the first, reflecting the end of the phenomenon of stock recovery in business and the decline in consumer spending due to inflation and the decision of the premium the case, "said Mathilde Lemoine chief economist at HSBC France. It is also banking on 0.2% growth over the period.

These figures confirm the slowdown in recent months in France, after a very dynamic first quarter. The leading index of activity came out in late June PMI fell sharply, reaching a lowest level in eight months, to 55.4 points. "Industry as services are affected by a drop in new orders, which does not bode well for future growth," Analysis Ken Wattret, chief euro zone economist at BNP Paribas.

French exports did not spark either in recent months (0.9% from March to May), particularly because of slower sales in Asia. However, the French manufacturers seem to keep their spirits up. The INSEE index posted in June were up 3 points to 109 points. A level above its long-term average.

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The numbers are staggering. In Germany, the financial damage caused by cyber crime amounted to 61.5 million euros in 2010, according to figures released Thursday by the criminal police and the Federation of high tech Bitkom. This is equivalent to an increase of 66% over the previous year. As the United States, the FBI estimated the cost of crime to some digital $ 560 million in 2009. A world-wide, according to McAfee, cyber crime would have generated some 1000 billion in 2008, about 1.64% of world GDP for that year. Remains that, without minimizing the scale of the scourge, these figures are perplexing.

Many experts give little credence to these studies because most of them emanate from computer security specialists. For the record, other than McAfee is the world number two antivirus software.In addition, "less than 10% of companies report having experienced cyber attacks," said Jean-Paul Pinte, senior lecturer in strategic intelligence at the Catholic University of Lille. According to the specialist risk management and cyber terrorists of enterprises affected societies fear the bad publicity due to media coverage of cyber attacks.

Jean-Paul Pinte, "we know nothing of the legacy and financial losses suffered indirectly." He added: "If an attack is to relieve a company of sensitive information, loss of data will generate multiple costs, such as loss of competitiveness, or the upgrading of security."

"Hard to get a comprehensive view"

Director of the National Security Information Systems (Anssi), Patrick Pailloux abounds in this direction."When a site is the victim of an attack, he takes as an example, it is first blocked, causing a shortfall. Then we must add additional costs to set up a hotline strengthened. "And on the practices of industrial espionage initiated via the Internet," How can we measure in terms of losses that a competitor could steal ?, "asks the director of Anssi. Clearly, "it is difficult to get a comprehensive view of the problem," says he.

Despite these criticisms, these figures are held up to each event on Cybercrime. However dated, the estimated one trillion dollars of McAfee is authoritative. Last May, it appeared even in the "reminder" of the fourth Parliamentary Forum on Information Society in Geneva, on the initiative, among others, the United Nations.Trompe-l'oeil, the text quoted a source stamped Europol, the pharmacy police intergovernmental European Union, which actually refers to the numbers … the software publisher.

If governments do not hesitate to chopping these impressive figures, it is often necessary to legitimize, but costly reinforcement of their agencies against digital piracy. Or clear, make the pill easier to swallow from taxpayers. In January, the UK has estimated that cyber attacks cost him a whopping 27 billion pounds per year (32.2 billion euros) in a government study.An amount (by far) greater than the harm claimed by the United States … A few days before making public figure, London has announced the release of 650 million pounds over four years to "strengthen its cyber security "…

International cooperation in the war-horse

Without waving the national figures, France is no exception, as evidenced by the announcement of piracy Bercy in March. Patrick Pailloux it was for the state to "lead by example" to encourage companies to report piracy they wipe. The Director of Anssi said that 150 computers were then infiltrated by hackers to steal documents for the French presidency of the G20. "We were able to counter the threat," he goes on, noting that thirty experts have been mobilized for two months to "clean up" more than 130,000 positions in the Department.A communication that is timely, since Anssi plans to double its workforce (360 employees) by 2013.

Such methods may be distasteful, but experts and politicians agree: there is no time to waste on the face of digital crime. "For a long time in France, we thought that hacking and computer intrusions were not really dangerous, says Jean-Paul Pinte. But now we know that it's become a real business, and that the threat can come from anywhere: a simple USB key, hard drives or even photocopiers, which, connected to the Internet can become the target of hackers ".

Therefore, international cooperation, which requires significant resources, is "a priority," insists Patrick Pailloux. And for good reason: "90% of attacks are international," says the director of Anssi.In the columns of The Tribune, Laurent Wauquiez, Minister for European Affairs, recently recalled that a hacker "can be installed in Latvia, while in France to intervene through a Canadian site." He even considers urgent that Europe adopts "a kind of cyber-FBI-backed Europol" to stem the digital crime. And one last statistic to shoot, ensuring that "a user of thirty lost money in Europe over the last year" due to a hacker.

Businesses, prey selection

Having surveyed 45 U.S. companies in 2010, the Ponemon Institute found that on average, the financial damage caused by hackers and data theft was $ 3.8 million.Like that of McAfee, this figure is to be taken lightly, as though Ponemon shows his independence, his study was commissioned by ArcSight, a specialist in digital security. However, it appears that large groups are increasingly being targeted by hackers. Since the beginning of the year, the list of companies or institutions that have suffered cyberattacks has continued to grow. Sony has suffered more than ten attacks since mid-April, leading to theft of confidential data of more than 1 million customer accounts. Recently, Sega has had the same misfortune: the editor of the series of Sonic hedgehog found in mid-June have been stolen names, email addresses, birth dates and passwords of almost 1.3 million customers on its servers.Google or Citigroup also suffered cyber attacks.

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This is the axis of the policies of Nicolas Sarkozy: officials fewer but better paid. In principle, state officials are granted wage increases in half of the savings generated by the non-replacement of retiring in two in their own departments. Problem: once again, this rule was not followed in 2010.

According to the rapporteur UMP budget to the Assembly, Gilles Carrez, it is actually two-thirds (67.3%) of savings were spent on categorical measures. Specifically, the 31,013 job cuts in 2010 were 808 million savings to the state. But 544 million is left up wages.

Results vary from one department to another. The rate of return to public officials is low for Foreign Affairs (42%), Agriculture (41%), Education (37%) and consistent with the defense (54%).However, it exceeds the target for the Budget, the Economy (64%) or culture (68%). Worse, wage increases were higher than the economies of Ecology (24.7 million against 21.9 million), Labour (16.3 million against 13.9 million) and especially the Interior (149 million against 116 million)! Gilles Carrez even noted that the departments that make the least effort on their staff are often those where economies are most reassigned officers cash advance no faxing.

Good and bad students

Example: "Culture is the department in which the application of the rule of one in two is less strict, while the cost of measures categorical 68% savings." Conversely, "the ministries for which the rule is stricter, such as Foreign Affairs, Agriculture and Health, are those for which the categorical measures are less than 50%. "In short, there are good and bad students. These slips will pay dearly as they explain the fact that retirements have been less than expected, the increase in the payroll of the state in 2010. The latter (82 billion) grew by 0.7%. To achieve its goal of reducing by 2012 the state will give less to their agents …

The Court of Auditors in a report that pointed the slippage of the wage bill, advocated a strict framework for categorical measures and a freeze of the index point (which is the basis for the remuneration of officials) until 2013 included.

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Panic blew the oil markets on Thursday. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August finished at 91.02 dollars, down 4.39 dollars compared to the previous day. In London, the IntercontinentalExchange, the price of Brent North Sea with identical maturity tumbled 6.81 dollars even at 107.40 dollars to 21 hours.

In New York, the courts have even touched 89.69 dollars in session, their lowest level since Feb. 21. In London, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for August delivery fell to 105.72 dollars, its lowest level since May 6

The backlash follows the decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEA) to use its strategic reserves to bring to market 60 million barrels of oil. The idea is to compensate for the cessation of Libyan exports.According to the Agency, the events in Libya have deprived the market in late May of 132 million barrels of crude oil and "the further tightening of the oil market" resulting "risk of jeopardizing the fragile global economic recovery," says a statement.

The United States is "ready to do more if necessary"

Specifically, the 28 member countries of the IEA will release market two million barrels per day over a period of thirty days. A level which could be reviewed according to changing circumstances.

The United States will participate in this effort up to 50%, 30% for European countries and Asian countries for 20%, explained the executive director of the IEA, Nobuo Tanaka. The U.S. Department of Energy confirmed that it would draw 30 million barrels in reserves, currently at a "historically high" of 727 million barrels."The United States is prepared to do more if necessary to address this problem," the same official said on condition of anonymity, noting that an evaluation of current measures would be carried out after a month.

For his part, "France will contribute in proportion to its consumption, or 3.2 million barrels, equivalent to about 2% of French strategic stocks," said in another statement the Minister of Energy Eric Besson .

Surprise

For investors, this intervention is a real surprise. "It was mentioned last week in the markets but it was not included in the exchange, said an analyst at Saxo Bank personal loans for people with bad credit. No one expected that such action is taken now, it's very rare, "he adds.This is actually the third time in the history of the IEA, created after the 1973 oil crisis, that such action is taken. The members of the organization had already put to their stockpiles after the invasion of Kuwait and Iraq in 1990 after Hurricane Katrina that struck the United States in 2005.

This exceptional measure of the IEA should have the effect of increasing the available supply in the markets. It comes after the announcement Wednesday by U.S. Agency for Energy Information, a stronger-than-expected weekly oil stocks. "The IEA seeks to defuse the situation to avoid a price rise when the summer travel season approaches," says one at Saxo Bank. This announcement also appears as a response of industrialized countries to the failure of the meeting of OPEC countries in Vienna on June 8.The latter had failed to agree on an increase in their production quotas to slow the rise in prices.

Morose context

The announcement of the IEA is also grafted to a more worrisome macroeconomic environment for the oil markets. The U.S. central bank lowered its growth forecast Wednesday for the United States, she sees now under 3% for 2011 and increased its forecast for unemployment. Thursday, the idea of ​​a slowdown of the U.S. economy was confirmed with the announcement of an unexpected rise in jobless claims last week in the leading consumer of oil. In China also, the index of HSBC measuring manufacturing activity fell in June to its lowest level in eleven months.

"Wherever you look, it appears that growth is slowing," summed up Phil Flynn of PFG Best."This bodes ill for energy demand: this suggests that the measures taken by the Chinese government to slow the economy may be working too well, especially in a slowing U.S. economy and difficulties in the euro area "he added. In this atmosphere, "if there is a rebound, it will not be exceptional. It should not exceed 100 dollars. But instead we see prices stabilize at 90-95 dollars, "warns Saxo Bank.

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The support is not official, but the formula leaves little room for doubt. The U.S. treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, "believes that the experience and solid leadership skills of the Minister Lagarde make her an exceptionally gifted candidate for the general direction of the IMF." In the race to succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the institution, is a way for Washington to support the European rather than his rival Mexican Agustin Carstens.

This statement therefore encourage what Christine Lagarde who must, on Thursday, passing his oral exam before the Board of the IMF. She must convince the 24 members it is the most capable of governing the IMF in the current turmoil. Agustin Carstens, he led his interview Tuesday.

The Mexican Fund for an impartial

During this session, had said Monday the institution, "each candidate will present his views on issues facing the Fund and its member states, and administrators will be able to interact with the candidates." Mexicans called for an increased IMF resources permanent, impartial, representing more emerging economies on its board of directors.

Christine Lagarde was in turn focus his presentation on an IMF "responsive, cooperative, legitimate and fair." So far, she expressed hostility to a restructuring of the Greek debt. When asked whether she was confident before the interview, the French Minister exclaimed: "Forever!".

Two shadows loom, however, about his candidacy. First, the case Tapie, who has rebounded earlier this week, and the Greek crisis.Brazil has indicated, through his representative at the IMF, Paulo Nogueira Batista, he expected the future Director to hold a position of severe vis-à-vis Greece: "We need strong action to obtain from Athens, and a clear financial commitment on the part of the euro area. A general statement is inadequate. " A position held since the beginning of his campaign by Agustin Carstens, who says he even opened a debt restructuring if necessary.

Preordained

For many observers, however, the game is a foregone conclusion for Christine Lagarde. "The French Minister on course to win," and headlined the Wall Street Journal on Thursday morning. She enjoys the strong support from almost all European countries, over 15% of the vote.One member of the board should, however, provide support to Agustin Carstens: Mexican director representing Spain and Latin America, 4.7% of the vote. Brazil has not made clear in his favor.

The decision should ultimately be taken on the basis of consensus, not wanting the institution or place one of its member countries is at odds vis-à-vis a future director or humiliate an unsuccessful candidate. The outcome of the deliberations is expected Tuesday at the earliest, and June 30 at the latest.

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In Athens

It is now the strongman of the government just revamped George Papandreou: Evangelos Venizelos. Imposing, talkative and impulsive, professor of constitutional law of 54 years did not mince his words when entering his new office as Minister of Finance: "I left the Department of Defense to enter a war", has he said. And for good reason, this war is that of the economy. He is determined to carry out reforms and has a good chance to convince members to vote in favor of the second austerity plan on 28 June. Observers say it is the ideal person to mitigate the discontent within the party.

The entire political class recognizes Evangelos Venizelos his intelligence and his status as a pillar of the new government.Gathering his majority was a priority to calm the ardor of the critics of the Greek Prime Minister.

But for some experts, this man from northern Greece be too wet to agree with the Europeans. "It is the one who said the Council of Ministers last week, the country was under occupation administration. How Brussels will trust him? "Assen there be in the ranks of the Conservative opposition. For political analyst Giorgos Kirtsos, "Evangelos Venizelos wants to be Prime Minister. It has a very social discourse and is highly regarded by the barons of the press. He will use his gift as an orator to get the reforms in the population, "said he. "When he was at the Ministry of Development, he has managed the beginning of the privatization of the Greek electricity utility by arranging their own way.Now, decisions are more difficult, especially since it's not a reformer, "says Giorgos Kirtsos. The new "czar of the economy" as it is called the Greek press has an agenda of the busiest on the European stage. He will travel to the meetings of the Eurogroup and has make a difference with his predecessor, Giorgos Papaconstantinou, became Minister of the Environment.

Control social discontent

According to Petros Doukas, an economist and former Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos must quickly make proposals to the Europeans to save the country from bankruptcy. This could be a takeover of the Greek debt, "which currently is sold off at least 40% on the secondary market," said he. "Once acquired, they can erase part of our debt and other loan us again as a loan at 4% for twenty-five years.This is the ideal model for the second funding of 100 billion euros, "explains the former Conservative minister.

Meanwhile, Evangelos Venizelos will also control the rising social discontent in the country, especially as the indignant and unions are willing to take it a turf war without thank you. Rallies and demonstrations are scheduled from Sunday until Friday next European Council.

The deputies continued Friday to review the draft budget law amendment removing the tax shield and reducing the ISF. As expected, they voted in Article 1 of the bill abolishing the wealth tax for estates of less than EUR 1.3 million and revised the scale for the highest wealth. Now between 1.3 and 3 million of assets, the rate of TFR will be 0.25% from the first euro over 3 million, it will be 0.5%.A discount mechanism will correct the effects of threshold to prevent the wealth around these new terminals are losers compared to the previous situation.

During the final debate, which were to continue late into the night or Saturday, the members have changed two important points of the original text of the government, which will have a direct impact on taxpayers.

30,000 euros per decade

Proposed by the Rapporteur-General Budget, Gilles Carrez, the shield will reverse charge from 2011. Specifically, beneficiaries under the shield of their 2010 income will be imputed directly to their ISF, payable before September 30. Until now, the reverse charge was voluntary, and beneficiaries of the shield receiving a refund check from the treasury for several months after paying all their taxes.By forcing taxpayers to deduct that amount directly from their ISF, the government is spared thus a new controversy over the amount of refund checks that were received by a few large fortunes during the spring 2012 presidential election in full.

In addition, Members noted the reduction in ISF for each dependent child (including the majors pursuing studies), raising it to 300 euros against 150 euros previously.

The second set of changes to the law on donations of money. On the proposal of the Government, members agreed to authorize the renewal every ten years of the exemption from transfer taxes on gifts less than 30,000 euros.Since the law Tepa the summer of 2007, it is possible to donate money to his children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, or failure of issue to his nephews and nieces, without incurring tax (ie, without paying gift tax). And that, provided the donation does not exceed 31 865 euros and that certain rules are respected age. It's sort of a particular form of donation.

The government amendment relaxes the system. Thus, in case of gift to a child, the parent must have less than 80 years, and not, as now, less than 65 years. This threshold of 80 years is also one that is already applied to gifts to grandchildren or great-grandchildren. In addition, the amendment authorizes such gifts of money tax-free every ten years, whereas previously this could only be done once.The cost of this measure is estimated by the government between 20 and 30 million euros from 2017. It is in effect from that date that the first donors who benefited from this measure in 2007 will give back to their descendants. Good news however for holders of life insurance. Gilles Carrez's proposal to raise 20 to 25% taxation of life insurance in case of death, to the heritage of over 903 000 euros, was rejected.

The solemn vote of the Act is expected Tuesday.

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Rome will soon respond to the warning of the rating agency Standard & Poor's. After that it has threatened Friday night to degrade the note from the Italian debt, the government hinted Monday that he would introduce an austerity plan 35 to 40 billion euros in June, the agency Reuters quoted a government source. If you believe the latter, the date of submission of the measure was advanced to make "a signal to markets", namely that Italy holds the cords securely in its budget.

The Berlusconi government, weakened by recent electoral setbacks, has sought to defy Standard & Poor's. The latter said Friday that, "according to [his] point of view, the current growth prospects for Italy are low, and political commitment to reforms improving productivity seems faulty."Accordingly, the agency changed its outlook on the rating of Italy from stable to negative. There is one chance in three that this warning is followed by a deterioration in the Italian note, currently located at "A +", the 5th best possible. Italy is still far notches -6-category called "speculative".

Low growth

In response, the cost of insuring against a default of the Italian debt, very sensitive thermometer of the market sentiment has surged 15 points Monday, to 176 basis points. "Italy is in the viewfinder of the rating because its growth was disappointing," says Jean-Francois Robin, strategist at Natixis. In the first quarter, the economy has virtually stalled, its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 0.1% against 0.8% in Greece, or +1% in France.Italian growth was the lowest in the euro area between 2001 and 2010, also said Monday the National Institute of Statistics of Italy, Istat.

So far, Italy has escaped the wrath of the markets. Its deficit was limited to 4.5% in 2010, one of the lowest in the euro area. "The Italian deficit is supplied mainly by the debt service, which reaches 119% of its GDP," said Jean-Francois Robin. "This level can not satisfy the government, it must still reduce its deficit." Rome wants to reduce the gap between revenue and expenditure to 3% of GDP in 2012 and reach equilibrium in 2014.

Standard & Poor's is the only agency to express reservations about the trajectory of Italian public finances.Her colleague Fitch said Monday morning that Rome had been better than expected its 2010 goals and the country is on track to achieve those he has set for 2011. Moody's has for its part, reiterated that it has no plans to lower the Italian touch.

The International Monetary Fund said on Friday it would open Monday until June 10 nominations for the position of CEO, and he stared for "objective" to appoint his number one "by 30 June."

The Institution of Washington said that its board of directors, meeting in the day, had agreed "a period of applications which starts May 23, 2011 and will close June 10, 2011. "The objective of the board of directors select the director general consensus with the aim of completing the selection process by June 30, 2011," said Fund. Another objective is that this election "takes place in an open, merit-based and transparent," he added. IMF looks for a successor to French Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned Thursday and is being prosecuted for sex crimes in New York.The Fund's detailed plan to follow the procedure that its board of directors composed of representatives from 24 countries and country groups.

Applications must be submitted either by such representatives or by the IMF governors (the finance minister or the head of the central bank in different countries). If there are three or less, they will be revealed at the close on June 10 If there are more than three, they will be kept confidential to determine time preference "by consensus", except by a vote, a shortlist of three candidates in the best position. The two or three candidates who remain will be heard by the Board in Washington. This body will then seek a "consensus" to determine the new head of the institution, "although the board may select the Director General by a majority of votes."

The global automotive industry has been particularly affected by the consequences of the earthquake in Japan on March 11. The problems of supply of parts continues to disrupt production lines. And the worst is to come as manufacturers currently still draw on their inventories of components for the shortages. But at this rate, stocks should soon be exhausted. Thus, according to the consulting firm IHS Automotive cited by Les Echos, the peak could be reached in early September, during which 3.4 to 4 million vehicles will not be produced because of supply problems.

In total, throughout the year, the Japanese earthquake could result in the loss of 2 and 3 million compared to 77.6 million vehicles produced per year, according to IHS Automotive.For now, the consulting firm believes that manufacturers could not produce the equivalent of more than 1.5 million vehicles have been produced in response to supply disruptions in supply chains which 1.1 million in Japan.

The magnitude of these shortages can be explained by the importance taken over the years by the electronics in vehicles bad credit payday advance. Electronic systems account for nearly 30% of the cost of manufacturing a car. But the main producers of these components are Japanese and there are few alternative sources of production. For example, Japanese Renesas which manufactures control systems gearboxes, holds nearly 40% market share.

Return to normal until 2012

Once past the peak, automakers will try to work extra hard to regain the level of production prior to the disaster even at higher levels to meet demand and replenish their stocks. But nothing says that the factories will be able to keep pace. In fact, the capacities of production lines are limited. On the other hand, the collapse of the automobile demand in Japan could encourage manufacturers to be cautious.

Thus, the groups should take time to catch up with the volumes that have been lost following the disaster of 11 March. Some analysts believe the situation should not be completely restored until 2012.

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