EU leaders Thursday night put on the table a series of measures to help Greece, but also to convince that there is solidarity in the euro area.
Save Greece
Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Photo credits: Georges Gobet / AFP
Sudden brake on the French economy. The second quarter growth should be two times less than anticipated previously Banque de France (BDF), the institution announced Friday. It reduced its growth forecast to 0.2% for the period April to June, against 0.4% previously and 0.5% in its first estimate. The government expects growth of 2% over the year.
This revision severe downward is motivated by recent activity indicators published by the monetary institution. She recorded a decline in June industrial output (4 points to 99 points) and a slower growth in services (-1 points 99 points). The activity, however, should be stabilizing, according to forecasts from the BoF.
Reduced consumption
"The growth in the second quarter will be much less impressive than the first, reflecting the end of the phenomenon of stock recovery in business and the decline in consumer spending due to inflation and the decision of the premium the case, "said Mathilde Lemoine chief economist at HSBC France. It is also banking on 0.2% growth over the period.
These figures confirm the slowdown in recent months in France, after a very dynamic first quarter. The leading index of activity came out in late June PMI fell sharply, reaching a lowest level in eight months, to 55.4 points. "Industry as services are affected by a drop in new orders, which does not bode well for future growth," Analysis Ken Wattret, chief euro zone economist at BNP Paribas.
French exports did not spark either in recent months (0.9% from March to May), particularly because of slower sales in Asia. However, the French manufacturers seem to keep their spirits up. The INSEE index posted in June were up 3 points to 109 points. A level above its long-term average.
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The world's leading consumer is again in top form. The annual accounts ended June should show an increase in turnover of 5% over last year, when sales reached 78.9 billion dollars. Bob McDonald, who took over the group in the middle of the crisis in July 2009, was last week in France for his first visit since taking office. This former military academy at West Point, who spent five years in the U.S. Army before joining Procter in 1980, his book Figaro battle plan to win every year 200 million new consumers.
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The Cac 40 could string together a fourth consecutive session bullish. When a new day begins crucial for Greece, the Paris Bourse continued its prudent mini-rally started Monday – the last three meetings, the Cac 40 gained almost 4%. The index featuring Paris, ironed the day above 3900 points, opened on Thursday, up 0.33% to 3937.26 points. It has long hovered around 3930 points this morning, and won and 0.19% to 3931.70 points in mid-session.
At the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE-100 gained 0.68% to 5895.84 points and the Stock Exchange Frankfurt, the DAX 30 in advance from 0.07% to 7299.52 points.
Yesterday, the Greek Parliament adopted the first two parts of the austerity plan intended to avoid the financial ruin of Greece. This had the effect of propelling the Cac 40 in excess of 3900 points.This afternoon, members of Greek determine in detail the cost-saving measures and privatization to engage in Greece for the next four years. But on Thursday, the progression of CAC 40 may be more limited than ever, after the IMF expressed concern about a failure of the United States.
On the macroeconomic front, several indicators punctuate the trading session:
– After declining 1.4% in April, consumer spending fell again in May by 0.8%.
– The public debt increased by 54.9 billion euros in the first quarter from the end of last year, to $ 1.6461 trillion, or "approximately" 84.5% of GDP (GDP).
For the euro area, a first estimate of inflation in June was announced at 11 am: it has displayed steady at 2.7%.For June, analysts polled by Reuters on average expected a slight acceleration to 2.8%.
Finally, the United States, two statistics will be released today: requests for weekly unemployment benefits (1430) and industrial activity in the Chicago area in June (15.45).
On the corporate side, as since the beginning of the week, bank stocks react positively to approval by the Greek Parliament's austerity plan. BNP Paribas takes 1.21% to 52.63 euros, gaining Natixis 1.82% to 3.41 euros, Societe Generale advance of 1 no faxing pay day loans.03% to 40.23 euros and Credit Agricole rose 0.44% to 10, 21 euros.Yesterday, they gained 1% to 2%.
Carrefour: -1.26% to 27.75 euros; Casino: + 0.03% to 64.62 euros
In the struggle that pitted him against Carrefour in Brazil, Casino raised its stake in the Brazilian distributor Grupo Pao de Acucar by 37% to 43.1%.
In addition, the Colombian subsidiary of Casino, Exito, will conduct a capital increase of $ 1.4 billion to buy the Uruguayan subsidiary of Casino for $ 746 million.
LVMH yielded 0.49% to 121.90 euros shortly after noon.The European Commission approved Thursday the French luxury group LVMH, headed by businessman Bernard Arnault, to take control of the Italian jeweler Bulgari-watch, considering that the transaction would not raise competition concerns in Europe.
Pernod Ricard: -0.29% to 67.96 euros
The world number two wine and spirits sells its shares in Georgian society Georgian Wine and Spirits, an operation that involves small amounts according to a spokesman for the world's second largest wine and spirits.
EADS: -0.33% to 22.9 euros
The airline American Airlines is negotiating with the European aerospace group Airbus and Boeing to purchase at least 250 aircraft, an order worth approximately $ 15 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Axa: + 1.05% to 15.42 euros
The insurer will invest 500 million euros in its partnership with the Chinese bank ICBC over the next 5 years.
Gecina: + 0.02% to 95.54 euros
The land was made yesterday two new asset sales, with the amount of its trade-offs to 559 million euros at end June
EuropaCorp: + 2.85% to 3.97 euros
The company production and distribution film Luc Besson has suffered a net loss of 30.2% million for the year ending March 2010 to 2011.
Groupe Partouche (0.75% to 2.67 euros) recorded in the first half of its 2010/2011 financial year lagged net income down more than 30%.
Beneteau (2.27% to 14.87 euros) will publish its revenue for the third quarter after the close of trading.
This is the axis of the policies of Nicolas Sarkozy: officials fewer but better paid. In principle, state officials are granted wage increases in half of the savings generated by the non-replacement of retiring in two in their own departments. Problem: once again, this rule was not followed in 2010.
According to the rapporteur UMP budget to the Assembly, Gilles Carrez, it is actually two-thirds (67.3%) of savings were spent on categorical measures. Specifically, the 31,013 job cuts in 2010 were 808 million savings to the state. But 544 million is left up wages.
Results vary from one department to another. The rate of return to public officials is low for Foreign Affairs (42%), Agriculture (41%), Education (37%) and consistent with the defense (54%).However, it exceeds the target for the Budget, the Economy (64%) or culture (68%). Worse, wage increases were higher than the economies of Ecology (24.7 million against 21.9 million), Labour (16.3 million against 13.9 million) and especially the Interior (149 million against 116 million)! Gilles Carrez even noted that the departments that make the least effort on their staff are often those where economies are most reassigned officers cash advance no faxing.
Good and bad students
Example: "Culture is the department in which the application of the rule of one in two is less strict, while the cost of measures categorical 68% savings." Conversely, "the ministries for which the rule is stricter, such as Foreign Affairs, Agriculture and Health, are those for which the categorical measures are less than 50%. "In short, there are good and bad students. These slips will pay dearly as they explain the fact that retirements have been less than expected, the increase in the payroll of the state in 2010. The latter (82 billion) grew by 0.7%. To achieve its goal of reducing by 2012 the state will give less to their agents …
The Court of Auditors in a report that pointed the slippage of the wage bill, advocated a strict framework for categorical measures and a freeze of the index point (which is the basis for the remuneration of officials) until 2013 included.
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The support is not official, but the formula leaves little room for doubt. The U.S. treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, "believes that the experience and solid leadership skills of the Minister Lagarde make her an exceptionally gifted candidate for the general direction of the IMF." In the race to succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the institution, is a way for Washington to support the European rather than his rival Mexican Agustin Carstens.
This statement therefore encourage what Christine Lagarde who must, on Thursday, passing his oral exam before the Board of the IMF. She must convince the 24 members it is the most capable of governing the IMF in the current turmoil. Agustin Carstens, he led his interview Tuesday.
The Mexican Fund for an impartial
During this session, had said Monday the institution, "each candidate will present his views on issues facing the Fund and its member states, and administrators will be able to interact with the candidates." Mexicans called for an increased IMF resources permanent, impartial, representing more emerging economies on its board of directors.
Christine Lagarde was in turn focus his presentation on an IMF "responsive, cooperative, legitimate and fair." So far, she expressed hostility to a restructuring of the Greek debt. When asked whether she was confident before the interview, the French Minister exclaimed: "Forever!".
Two shadows loom, however, about his candidacy. First, the case Tapie, who has rebounded earlier this week, and the Greek crisis.Brazil has indicated, through his representative at the IMF, Paulo Nogueira Batista, he expected the future Director to hold a position of severe vis-à-vis Greece: "We need strong action to obtain from Athens, and a clear financial commitment on the part of the euro area. A general statement is inadequate. " A position held since the beginning of his campaign by Agustin Carstens, who says he even opened a debt restructuring if necessary.
Preordained
For many observers, however, the game is a foregone conclusion for Christine Lagarde. "The French Minister on course to win," and headlined the Wall Street Journal on Thursday morning. She enjoys the strong support from almost all European countries, over 15% of the vote.One member of the board should, however, provide support to Agustin Carstens: Mexican director representing Spain and Latin America, 4.7% of the vote. Brazil has not made clear in his favor.
The decision should ultimately be taken on the basis of consensus, not wanting the institution or place one of its member countries is at odds vis-à-vis a future director or humiliate an unsuccessful candidate. The outcome of the deliberations is expected Tuesday at the earliest, and June 30 at the latest.
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That night, the Greek Parliament gave its confidence to the new government Papandreou for the implementation of an austerity program. This news was widely expected by the Paris market, which rose 2.04% Tuesday night at closing. If the ad is positive, this explains the slight decline in anticipation of the index in Paris on Wednesday, which fell by 0.50% in mid-session at 3857.71 points. It is thus unlikely that the Cac 40, which has recovered to 3877.07 points last night, without addressing today at 3900 points mark.
For despite the vote tonight, Greece remains in a serious situation. The country needs to pass before June 30, the austerity plan that provides savings of 28.4 billion and 50 billion privatization until 2015.Persistent concerns explaining the lack of investor optimism since the beginning of June.
At the macroeconomic level, the announcement of an increase in the INSEE industrial morale in June, was not enough to give a positive trend. Industrial orders in the euro area rebounded 0.7% in April from the previous month, said Wednesday the EU statistics office Eurostat.en March, they had recorded their first decline in six months, 1.5 %. Eurostat has slightly revised its initial estimate, which gave an even stronger decline of 1.8%. On the macroeconomic front, investors should exercise great caution before the press conference of the U.S. central bank in the evening.The economic outlook in the United States could be scaled down and the Fed is expected to confirm the end of the support measures.
As for currencies, the vote of confidence of the Greek Parliament supports a slight decline in the European currency. The euro fell slightly against the dollar on Wednesday, suffering from profit taking after the sharp rise the previous day. Around 11:00 in Paris, the single European currency was worth 1.4401 dollars against 1.4408 late Tuesday.
In terms of oil, the news does not really have an impact on price developments, mixed Wednesday. Relieved by the vote of confidence, the market is wait until the end of the meeting of the American Fed. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for August delivery lost 46 cents to 93.71 dollars.That of Brent North Sea crude for August delivery gained 31 cents to 111.26 dollars.
Carrefour degraded
Carrefour (-1.52%, 26.89 euros) Moody's said Tuesday it had downgraded the outlook from stable to negative. Yesterday, at a general meeting stormy, the splitting of Dia was approved while the shareholders voted in favor of renewing the businessman Bernard Arnault on the board.The current Group Chief Executive, Lars Olofsson, will take over the chairmanship of the board of directors in place of Amaury de Seze.
EADS (+0.11% at 21.78 euros): Louis Welsh, CEO of EADS, the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday that the European aircraft manufacturer plans to save the day at the Paris Air Show orders for its A380, the largest airliner in service in the world.
Total (-0.76% to 38.58 euros) assigned to a consortium of most of its petroleum distribution assets in the UK, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, for about 450 million.
Societe Generale (-0.87% to 39.82 euros). Shareholders representing 68% of the shares of the group opted for the 2010 dividend payment for new shares.The number of new shares issued for payment of the dividend is 23,901,432 shares, representing 3.2% of current capital of SocGen.
The title was up Altran Technologies (3.01% to 5.51 euros) on the Paris market on Wednesday midday, taking advantage of the positive outlook of analysts following a meeting with the new CEO of technology consulting .
The Tanner (suspended) Qatar Luxury Group has launched a simplified tender offer for the remaining capital of leather goods at the same price of 6.51 euros per share. He already holds 54.73% stake in the Tanner, whose listing is suspended.
Areva (-1.71% to 25.61 euros) The Supervisory Board endorsed the group's arrival Tuesday in place of Luc Oursel Anne Lauvergeon. This should also not give up his severance pay.
U.S. markets open slightly higher on Monday after a sharp decline Friday. Leaded by the accumulation of signs of slowdown in the global economy, the Dow Jones closed down by 1, 42%, to 11,951.91 points. The Dow Jones gained 0.35% to 11,994.07 points, the Nasdaq ahead by 0.40% to 2654.17 points and the S & P 500 rose 0.35% to 1275.37 points.
Like doubts about the financial situation of Greece weighing on European markets, U.S. investors should not however find a frank optimism as the Obama administration does not provide a convincing response to the U.S. debt.Hence the nervousness on Wall Street recorded, for 6 weeks, all finished in the red.
No waiting indicator
In the absence of major macroeconomic indicators and publications from the companies, markets keep an eye on the ongoing discussions about whether or not to raise the debt ceiling. From this point of view, the main concern is the possibility in the coming weeks, the U.S. can not cope with effect from 2 August to some of their repayment obligations, if the cap was not raised.
Side currency, the euro lost some ground against the dollar Monday in a market without much direction still hanging on the progress of discussions between EU leaders, who are struggling to find agreement on how to continue to help financially Greece.MP in the afternoon in Paris, the European single currency was worth 1.4379 dollars against 1.4348 dollars on Friday night.
On oil markets, prices started to fall Monday in a cautious market that awaits the decisions of Saudi Arabia on a possible increase of its production. Around 24:10 in Paris, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for July delivery was $ 118.66 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London, giving 12 cents from Friday's close. In electronic trade the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light sweet crude (WTI) for the same period lost $ 1.19 to 98.10 dollars.
As for values
Banking supervision
Financial stocks could benefit from an article by the financial weekly Barron's pay day loans.The newspaper said the major banks like Bank of America (+0.29% to 10.88 dollars), Citigroup (0.71% to 38.19 dollars), Goldman Sachs (0.96% to 137, $ 23), Morgan Stanley (0.71% to 22.85 dollars) and Wells Fargo (1.26% to 26.61 dollars) are undervalued on the stock market and could see their progress as 25% of the next year, says the financial weekly Barron's. These shares are currently traded at levels close to or well below their book value, the magazine added.
Boeing: 0.80% to 73.27 dollars)
The will sell six Boeing 777-300ER to Thai Airways, which will also acquire eight Boeing 787 leased from ILFC.
Allied World Assurance: -1.88% to 56.98 dollars
The group will buy Transatlantic Holdings for $ 3.2 billion in shares, giving birth to a group of insurance and reinsurance with an ever wider and greater implementation. Transatlantic Shareholders will receive 0.88 share for each Allied as they hold the equivalent of 51.10 dollars per share, representing a premium of 16.1% over the closing price on Friday.
Gilead Sciences: -1.42% to 39.66 dollars
The biotechnology company, world leader of HIV treatment, said Friday it received a subpoena to submit to the court documents relating to its manufacturing methods, quality control and distribution.
Blackstone: +0.12% to 16.62 dollars
The group and the specialist debt Avenue Capital talk with investors in order to raise five billion dollars to invest in bond markets, reports the Sunday Telegraph.
VF Corp: 12.23% to 103.03 dollars Timberland: 42.48% to 42.73 dollars
The group announced Monday the acquisition of the apparel brand Timberland outdoor sports for $ 43 per share and a total of two billion dollars. VF Corp. expects this acquisition will allow it to add approximately $ 700 million to its turnover in 2011.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has the alarm on the third world economy. Consequence of the earthquake on March 11, its economists expecting a decline of 0.7% of GDP for the whole of 2011. The Fund is particularly concerned for the country's debt, which will reach 219% of GDP at end 2011, and finds that the debt reduction must remain the priority of the government.
The latter, which has just passed a supplementary budget of 33 billion euros to finance the first necessities, wants to pass through Parliament a law authorizing it to issue bonds and launch a second budget by August.
But the Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, in power for a year, is increasingly challenged, including in his own camp. Opponents blocked the law and want to relinquish power as soon as possible. They propose to form a "grand coalition", a sort of unity government."Given the limited scope exists to reduce expenditure, fiscal consolidation should be based on a comprehensive tax reform, built around a progressive rise in consumption tax," the IMF analysis.
A solution that Naoto Kan has long dream. Set at 5% today, this fee could rise to 10% in 2015-2016, calculates the government. Yet it must be at least 15% for only "half way done," the IMF tranche.
Lifting the Russian embargo on grain exports was widely expected by markets. "We will lift the ban on July 1, has announced on Saturday the prime minister, Vladimir Putin. The latter was originally scheduled to expire in late December 2010 but was extended amid fears of another poor harvest.
Earlier this year, the Russian Minister of Agriculture, Elena Skrynnik, and the first Russian deputy prime minister, Viktor Zubkov, had even cast doubt in the minds of investors by suggesting that the ban could be extended until 'at the end of September or early October. "Our main task is to perform efficiently and timely spring planting on 50 million hectares of cereals including at least 30 million hectares, which will give us a harvest of 85 million tons of grain, "explained Elena Skrynnik.The announcement of the lifting of the embargo implies therefore that these objectives will be achieved.
Soulagment waited on wheat prices
That embargo was imposed by the Russian government because of drought and an unprecedented heat wave during summer 2010, which caused a fall crop Russian approximately 60 million tonnes against 95 million tons originally planned. The embargo was intended to ensure supplies to domestic markets. "We must prevent inflation in domestic prices and also save the Russian stock" which might be destroyed in case of lack of food due to excessively high domestic prices for cereals, Vladimir Putin had said during the announcement of measurement.
But the inflation in wheat prices has taken place internationally since Russia is the third largest exporter of wheat.In August 2010, a ton more than the 230 euros on the Paris markets, while a bushel (25 kg) was trading at over $ 7.80, a level not seen since the food crisis of August 2008.
Since then, the tension on the wheat markets has not subsided. Higher prices even accelerated since May, a tonne is worth about 260 euros on the Paris markets and is worth 8.1975 dollars per bushel on U.S. markets. In one year, prices have soared from 96.76% to 77.77% in Paris and Chicago. The meteorological context remains very complicated. The United States, world's largest exporter, are facing a very wet spring in central and northern Iraq that delay planting. The very dry conditions in Europe, especially France, would result in lower production than expected, while in China, a drought affecting the historic center of the country.The return of the Russian market should alleviate investors.
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