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Large deviation from the European Central Bank. Mario Draghi, warned on Friday that a central bank "may quickly lose credibility" and that "it would have a huge economic and social costs." It refers to market demand and France, reject, would be for the ECB buys massive state debt to halt the rise in interest rates in the euro zone and end to the crisis. A policy that the institution refuses to take on behalf of his economic principles.

"Our credibility implies the success of our monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations in the medium and long term (…) to sustain growth, job creation and financial stability. And we make this contribution in full independence, "insisted Mario Draghi.

Ceiling of 20 billion euros

So much so that they would even be subject to a weekly maximum of 20 billion euros, reports the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. This limit, which apparently exists since the beginning of these operations, in 2010, was set recently in this new threshold, the newspaper said.

The ECB acts only waiting for the States to establish their own anti-crisis mechanism, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), Mario Draghi repeated on Friday. Four weeks ago, European leaders decided to increase the powers so he could buy the debt of state. But these reforms are still not operational. "Where are we in the implementation of these decisions? questioned the President of the ECB.

Time is now against Silvio Berlusconi. He must prove to the faster it puts its promises into action.

The head of the Italian Government is committed to the adoption by Parliament before Nov. 15 its plan to revive growth, the first stage at least. The measures were approved Wednesday by the Cabinet. Among the main liberalization of regulated professions and local public services, commitment to gradually raise the retirement age to 67, administrative simplification, auction of 15 billion euros in property assets of the state in three years.

This plan is in addition to 54 billion budget savings passed in September to restore public finances to balance by 2013, when the deficit reached 3.9% this year.

The first event will be played next week in the Senate.

The future of Standard Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 predict a small increase in opening of U.S. stock markets on Friday. Thursday already, the New York Stock Exchange ended without direction.

U.S. investors, like their counterparts in Europe and Asia, should be particularly attentive to the development of the debt crisis in the eurozone. They should avoid taking risks when to begin a crucial summit on the debt crisis this weekend. Paris and Berlin have announced that Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel would speak well Saturday in Brussels to prepare an "ambitious and comprehensive response" to the crisis. Concrete measures will be considered Sunday to be adopted during a second peak "no later than Wednesday."

Discussions will focus on how to increase the capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), but also on the rescue of Greece.Meanwhile, in Greece, the anti-austerity continues. A new law has been de rigueur in the Greek Parliament voted Thursday.

Summit high risk in Europe

For many observers, however, profound differences remain between France and Germany. "There is no joint proposal" European at the moment, has acknowledged Thursday the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. For his part, President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso called on Europeans to "compromise" to reach decisions "resolved" and "immediate."

Another failure might further undermine investor confidence in the ability of Europeans to fight effectively against the debt crisis.They would now have a highly sensitive situation at the G20 to be held in early November.

Pressure rating agencies

Rating agencies are increasing the pressure on the euro area. After Moody's, S & P raised doubts about the AAA rating of the long-term debt of France. The agency suggests a probable degradation of notes France, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal according to economic conditions no fax pay day loan.

On the macroeconomic front there is no any major indicator on the agenda of U.S. investors on Monday.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro retreated slightly to 1.3741 dollars against 1.3772 dollars on Thursday night. Oil prices were, themselves, up in the wake of the announcement of the disappearance of the former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.The barrel of "light sweet crude" for December delivery gained 71 cents to 86.78 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange while in London, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for December delivery was appreciating eight cents to 109.84 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Earnings up for Microsoft

The side of values, after the close, Microsoft released the first quarter, revenues of $ 17.4 billion, up 7% year on year. Net income reached 5.74 billion, up 6%, while earnings per share rose 10% to $ 0.68.

Sandisk has reported a turnover in the third quarter of $ 1.4 billion, up 15% year on year.Earnings per share were $ 0.96 against $ 1.34 last year.

Altera has recorded sales of 522.5 million dollars in the third quarter, down 1% year on year and down 2% from the previous quarter.

Capital One Financial has released the third quarter net income of $ 813 million against 803 million last year and 911 million in the second quarter.

Chubb Corp in the third quarter earnings per share of $ 1.04 against $ 1.8 last year.For the full year, the U.S. insurer expects operating earnings per share of 5.1 to 5.2 against the dollar from 5.55 to 5.85 dollars in a previous estimate.

Note also, from Monday, October 24, the company Groupon, which specializes in online distribution of discount coupons for shopping in local markets, should do its IPO on the basis of a valuation from October to December billion. However, it is far from the capitalization of 15 to 20 billion, of which Andrew Mason, founder of the company was still dreaming in June.

French bond yields increasingly deviates from the reference German. And if the price that France has to pay its creditors rises relative to that payable by the neighbor across the Rhine, is that the repayment capacity is considered less French.

This distrust on observed past few days has increased further this Tuesday morning, after a warning from the rating agency Moody's. The French rate to ten years and have removed more than 1% (100 basis points) German rates, which are the reference unwavering in terms of sovereign bonds in Europe.

A disturbing record since the introduction of the single currency. On the London market, the French rate to ten years in the early morning reached 3.04%, while its German equivalent, the "Bund", down 9 basis points (-0.09%) to 2%.

At the same time, insurance (CDS) against a default on the obligations of the French state have seen their costs rise significantly. CDS to five years in France and were up 10 basis points shortly after 9:40, to 194 basis points according to Markit data. In other words, it costs 194,000 euros to insure against exposure to 10 million euros of bonds.

The gap could widen further

"We must relativize the gap (called the" spread ") bond rates between France and Germany: the level of French is extremely low rates, grade Cyril Regnat, strategist at Natixis. The ten-year French course is slightly above 3%, but the last five years, it stood at an average of 3.75%.In these circumstances, the spread can still dig a little. "The analyst believes, however, that the cost of debt already includes a breakdown of the French note one notch to AA +.

On this point, however, opinions differ. "The decline of the note is not yet in the curves: the rate could still rise from 30 to 50 basis points, that is to say 0.3 to 0.5% in the worst case, and reach a rate differential with Germany of 150 basis points, or 1 guaranteed cash advance.5%, "calculates Norbert Gaillard *, consultant to the World Bank and specialist rating agencies.

Why the interest rate differential between France and Germany increases

The rising cost of the French debt occurs observed Tuesday morning despite the fact that Moody's has taken more precautions than ever to launch his warning."She chose a time when the stress in the markets was relatively peaceful and has added a step ahead of the traditional reporting system in three stages," Norbert Gaillard analysis. Usually, the agency established the first note of the country "negative outlook" and then put the note "under review" before degrading it if necessary.

"It is very likely that the next move by Moody's, provided in three months, or to place a negative outlook on the rating of France," said Norbert Gaillard."How the country can indeed solve the three problems it faces: slow growth, deficit reduction and the difficulties of Greece and its banking system?"

In this context, "the Moody's decision means that the French can not help itself with its banks without risking his note: it has more room for maneuver necessary," Judge Cyril Regnat. "If the banks recapitalize without the state, then the fears will be evacuated on the AAA market and we should see an easing of interest rates." Investors have already understood: after the warning from Moody's, French banks have dropped the stock market.

* Author of "A Century of Sovereign Ratings", ed.Springer (USA), 2012

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The influx of voters on the Socialist primary this Sunday will reduce the cost of the operation. In fact, a minimum contribution of one euro was requested to the voters to fund the organization of the election. Thus, in addition to a successful democratic movement of the two and a half million participants in the election allows the party to reduce the bill of 2.5 million euros at least. In an interview with L'Express. Fr, Régis Juanico, the treasurer of the PS, acknowledged recently that "often, voters give more," the gifts of up to 150 euros.

Voter participation could offset the overall cost of the operation, however, revised upwards. The latest estimates by the Socialist Party reported a budget of 3.5 million euros, against 1.5 million originally planned.In an interview with Journal du Dimanche, the spokesman of the High Authority of the primary, the lawyer Jean-Pierre Mignard estimated that this cost is related primarily to "the need to recover a significant number of voters who were in the wrong format. "

Moreover, strengthening the means of control is more weighed on the invoice. In particular, the PS did not foresee the rental digital pens to prevent fraud. The cost would reach 300,000 euros guaranteed pay day loans. Similarly, the recruitment of many bailiffs should have a significant cost, recognized Jean-Pierre Mignard.

Elected officials and activists in support of the campaign budget

In addition, the campaign paid envelope to each candidate was revised upwards just before the campaign. Thus, each participant had € 50,000 instead of 30,000.A total re-evaluated to finance new travel and meetings and printing of new leaflets.

But the two favorites polls, Francois Hollande who collected 39% of the vote to Martine Aubry (31%) did not hesitate to seek their support, politicians and activists, to finance their campaigns. In the end, the campaign of François Hollande should cost 250,000 euros to 200,000 euros against Martine Aubry. The deputy director of the campaign Arnaud Montebourg, John Palacin, recently reported that the campaign Arnaud Montebourg cost nearly 100,000 euros, funded in part by the militants.

Only the winner of the primary campaigns will have their accounts credited to the budget allocated to the presidential campaign.

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Wall Street earnings increases, on Thursday. After opening slightly higher, U.S. financial markets now earn more than 1%: the Dow is 1.16% to 11,066.34 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.44% to 2496.01 points and the S & P 500 gaining 1.36% to 1159.59 points.

After weeks of dithering, European leaders have taken in hand to avoid a collapse of the banking sector, weakened by the debt crisis, which brought down the French-Belgian group Dexia. The markets were also reassured by the publication of macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. exceeded expectations: job creation in the private sector and the ISM services.

Caution before the employment figures

Investors in Europe and the United States should however be cautious before several major macroeconomic deadlines.On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday to maintain its 1.50% interest rate, reference the cost of credit in the euro zone, despite the sharp deterioration in the economic and financial crisis.

Investor caution should also be strengthened by the expectation of official figures of employment for the month of September in the United States to be published Friday. Meanwhile, new jobless claims are slightly lift the United States during the last week of September, according to figures released Thursday by the Washington Department of Labor.The Ministry has identified the deposit of 401,000 applications for unemployment benefits in the country from September 25 to October 1, adjusted for seasonal variations, or 1.5% over the previous week, which is consistent with the estimate of analysts.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro reached 1 bad credit pay day loans.3331 dollars. A barrel of crude is trading at 102.38 dollars for Brent North Sea and 79.50 dollars for U.S. crude.The ounce of gold is trading in 1644 dollars.

Investors will have their eyes on Apple and Yahoo

As for values, investors will have their eyes on the technology sector.

• Apple (-0.39% to 376.77 dollars) will remain particularly observed after the announcement of the demise of the group's founder Steve Jobs.

• Yahoo (-4.60% to 15.19 dollars) is the subject of new rumors of a possible bid from U.S. computer giant Microsoft, which had already in 2008 attempted to seize the group's internet America.

• Hewlett-Packard (0.41% to 23.96 dollars) should not make further major acquisitions in the software after the acquisition of Autonomy, according to statement from the group's new boss Meg Whitman cited by Reuters.

• Boeing (0.25% to 60.11 dollars) has received an order for one.$ 1 billion from Ethiopian Airlines for four Boeing 777 freighters.

• Gilead Sciences (-0.03% to 39.14 dollars) has obtained a license agreement Boehringer Ingelheim for the exclusive rights to research, development and commercialization of an anti-integrase for the treatment of HIV.

• Marriott International (2.02% to 28.75 dollars) issued for the third quarter, earnings per share of $ 0.29, up 32% year on year. Turnover was 2.9 billion dollars against 2.6 billion last year. The revenue per available room key indicator in the hotel sector grew by 8.7% on a comparable basis, while prices rose by 5.3%.

• Individuals involved to the tune of 5.6 billion euros

– Removal of exemptions for allowances holding period on capital gains property, excluding exempt principal residence (2200000000)

– Increase of 12.3% to 13.5% payroll taxes on capital income (1.3 billion)

– Removal or reduction of exemptions from the CSG (800,000,000)

– Increase in tobacco prices by 6% (600,000,000)

– Increase the tax and social taxes on liquor (300,000,000)

– Introduction of an outstanding contribution of 3% on very high incomes, above 500,000 euros.Some 10,000 homes were affected (200,000,000)

– Creation of a tax on sugary drinks (100 million)

– Device Scellier: decrease of 22% to 14% rate of tax reduction for investors buying new low-energy housing for rental (about 100 million euros)

– Introduction of a progressive tax (from 10 to 40%) for owners of "good rooms" applying the rents to be too expensive (over 40 euros/m2), mainly in Paris (1 million)

– Decrease of 18% to 12% rate of tax reduction for purchases in retirement homes, tourist and student (nearly 10 million)

• The companies affected to the tune of 4.8 billion euros

– Reduction of deferred losses for a harmonization of corporate taxation with Germany.- Revision of scale of the tax on company cars (100 million)

– Creation of a 2% tax on hotel stays at or above 200 euros (90 million)

– Creation of an exceptional tax next year on sales of large industrial duty subject to quotas of CO2 (200 million)

– The draft budget provides for operators to bear the costs of a possible interference of DTT with the new 4G mobile radio frequencies that will be awarded in early 2012.

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The Paris Bourse on Wednesday will try to stop his downward series. The CAC 40 closed yesterday on a third round of consecutive decline, the lowest of the year and still under 3000 points. This time, to consolidate their recovery, operators should rely on the good mood of the Asian markets who have chosen to embark on a bargain hunting.

Closing slightly lower on Wall Street should also reassure the markets. The New York Stock Exchange, which remained very cautious, however, has not panicked by the announcement of a good non-manufacturing ISM index. All good news about the health of the U.S. economy are highly valued in a context of fear of a recession in America. As such, investors are waiting to know the details of the Fed's Beige Book, which will be announced tonight.Tomorrow, Thursday, will also be a crucial day in Congress with the speech of President Barack Obama on employment. The CNN already believes that it will propose to spend $ 300 billion to new posts. These new expenditures should be fully offset by budget cuts.

Germany at the center of attention

Side the euro area, all eyes turned to the German Constitutional Court which shall decide on Wednesday on the legality of the financial contribution of Berlin plans to help Europe. The observers could never imagine, however, that the Court considers illegal contributions already provided by Berlin, which would cause a cataclysm in the euro area. Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to comment on the decision of the Court in a speech to the Bundestag in the morning.

The European Commission has also expressed his relief after Tuesday night's decision by the Italian Government's plan to strengthen budgetary discipline, while financial markets doubted the real will of Rome to reduce its deficit. For its part, the Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, acknowledged Tuesday the difficult economic situation, highlighting the problem of Greece, and "tensions" in the markets, but said that Spain 's will not need help.

The single currency was this morning up 0.34% to 1.4055 dollar. It is particularly supported by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to set a floor price of 1.20 francs per euro.Oil side, in the early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 51 cents to 86.53 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 39 cents to 113.28 dollars .

Values ​​to follow on Wednesday

• Banking

Countries in the euro area have no plans for financial support to banks beyond and above what was planned for the financial sector rescue packages in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, have sources said Tuesday the euro area. For its part, Greece wants to extend the powers of its central bank to strengthen bank supervision, hoping to put the sector in the shelter of a worsening debt crisis, according to a bill presented Tuesday.

• Air France-KLM

The company reported passenger traffic up 7.6% in August, a load factor of 85.7% on the month and stability of cargo traffic (-0.2%) with capacity up 2.8%.

• Pernod Ricard

The group said they did not consider major strategic acquisitions before next summer at least.

• Scor

The reinsurer expects to achieve a volume of gross written premiums, equivalent to sales of 10 billion euros in 2013, against 6.7 billion in 2010, according to a statement posted Wednesday on the occasion of a day devoted investors.

• Sodexo

The group, a global leader in catering, has announced the acquisition of Puras do Brasil, Brazil's number two industry, in a statement.With this self-financed operation, Sodexo will become number one in Brazil, a rapidly growing market where Puras do Brasil realizes a turnover of half a billion euros.

• Valeo

The group announced its intention to repurchase up to 670,000 of its shares to a maximum of 22.5 million euros in connection with operations authorized by the General Assembly in June These shares will be allocated for the implementation of any plan of options to purchase shares in the allocation of shares in respect of participation or implementation of any company savings plan.

• Biomérieux

The group released a consolidated net profit up 3.7% to 75 million euros in the first half and said forecast for 2011 organic growth in sales of around 5%, against a previous target of +5% or + 6%, in a context of weak European economy and the U.S..

• Boiron

The specialist in homeopathy said the uncertainties in the economic environment for caution in its annual outlook after a deuixème trimesre marked by a 3.3% decline in sales. This decline in activity, combined with an increase in personnel costs and a continued investment in advertising, led to a fall of 92.5% of operating profit in the first half of the year.

• Transgene

The specialist therapeutic vaccines has announced a net loss dug to 17.7 million in the first half, against -14.5 million a year earlier, but said he expected a second part of a year rich in results and starting clinical trials.

At the time of the near-victory against the Gaddafi regime, France officially unveils the treasures accumulated by the Libyan dictator in France. The Elysee Palace announced on Wednesday that 7.6 billion euros of assets had been frozen since the European decision to this effect from 21 March. Initially, Paris has requested authorization from the UN to release 1.5 billion euros by the end of the week. This is to meet the emergency needs of the rebels of the National Transition, said the president.

The request of France aims to prepare the international conference on the future of Libya after the fall of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The question of a thaw in Libyan assets will be the focus of discussion. The financial stakes are considerable: the Gaddafi regime has accumulated through the sale of oil and gas, about $ 200 billion worldwide.Among others, the United States had announced in late February, have frozen $ 30 billion, the Bank of England 13.587 billion dollars.

The Security Council authorized the UN London Tuesday to release $ 1.6 billion in frozen Libyan assets to provide humanitarian aid to Tripoli. The UN has also agreed Thursday to release $ 1.5 billion of assets invested in U.S. banks. Germany still waits for its green light to unlock the Council about a billion of Libyan assets frozen and Canada intends to thaw $ 2 billion (1.38 billion euros). The Italian government has already promised to thaw a first tranche of 350 million euros.

The CNT eye on the jackpot for any rebuilding, put the country back in working order pay day advance."Our success will depend on the release of frozen funds" abroad, called Mahmoud Jibril, the number two of the rebels on Friday in Istanbul. "The battle of the reconstruction will be even more intense" than the war, he warned before. The transition looks perilous time and the payment of salaries of civil servants would prevent a resurgence of stabilization.

Disappearance of 25% of funds in three months

To this day, and unlike most other European countries, Paris refused to disclose that it had frozen Libyan petrodollars. However, statistics from the Bank of France, limited to transactions between banks between the two countries, indicated that at December 31, 2010, French banks harbored 8.23 ​​billion dollars (5.84 billion euros).Mysteriously, this amount has shrunk from 25% in 3 months (-2.1 billion, or $ 1.45 billion), while the wind of revolution blowing in the Arab world and earned Libya.

Impossible, from these statistics alone, to know where these billions have evaporated. It could be, as explained a French officer in April, a "reorganization perimeter" in the very opaque investment fund public Libyan LIA. Or capital flight, as was increasing international pressure on the Libyan regime, squeezed by the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions.

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The lowest in the polls, criticized for running out of ways to boost employment, weakened by a largely sterile confrontation with the Republicans on the issue of reducing the rate of debt, Barack Obama sought to regain control. Anxious to win back centrist voters, the president also caress the idea of ​​taxing the rich more, while the middle class is suffering from the sluggish economy.

It has been this week to support weight, in the person of Warren Buffett, the second property of the United States. For the latter, the "mégariches" are under-taxed. Buffett regrets having paid less than $ 7 million in federal taxes last year. This represents only 17.4% of its taxable income. He noted that employees pay on average, and as a percentage of their income, far more than him.The billionaire said that in 1992 the 400 richest U.S. taxpayers paid 29.2% of their income in federal taxes. But in 2008, their effective tax rate decreased to 21.5%, while in sixteen wealth is gone.

The two men do not speak yet not the same. The President wants to raise taxes for taxpayers earning more than $ 250,000 a year. Buffett, however, advocates the creation of new tax bands for income above one million dollars from all sources.The investor philanthropist also suggests an upper tax beyond $ 10 million, but fails to specify the desired level for these new units.

Impose more gains

Still, according to the Tax Policy Center, even 50% by taxing all income above one million, one that would release $ 48 billion in tax revenue over ten years, under very inadequate amount of resources to reduce the budget deficit. However, up to 15% to 20% maximum tax rate on capital gains as under Bill Clinton, would generate approximately $ 340 billion over ten years.

Warren Buffett's plea addressed especially to the twelve in fact members of Congress belonging to the commission that must by the end of November to $ 1.5 trillion proposed budget savings over ten years."It is vital that they manage to go beyond. Americans are rapidly losing their faith in the ability of Congress to address the fiscal problems of our country, "said Buffett, himself the son of an elected Republican Nebraska.

It is supported by another millionaire, Alan "Ace" Greenberg, former head of Bear Stearns: "To believe that, by raising taxes Warren Buffett or Bill Gates, they will begin to lay off staff is totally ridiculous … I'm not saying that tax increases should begin to 250,000 dollars in revenue. But they must start somewhere. At one million to two million, at least they should start, "says the bridge partner of the two richest people in the United States.

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