Lefigaro.fr – Italy can it fail?
Jean-François Jamet – Nobody knows. This is the total blur as both a politically and economically. This will depend on the coming weeks. Today, investors doubted the credibility of the Italian government of Silvio Berlusconi in particular, entangled in scandals about his private life. They do not believe in his ability to find consensus in the short term and implement structural reforms to end a decade of stagnation. Italy is in the situation of a country whose financial situation is very dependent on the psychology of financial markets: the deficit depends on interest rates payable on its debt.
What will happen if Italy does not make structural reforms?
Italian debt will eventually become unsustainable. The risk of panic can not then be excluded.It would then interest rates will soar as investors withdraw massive failure and would become a likely scenario. However, unlike Greece, the risk is lower. First, the country just to pay interest on public debt. Then Italy had a primary surplus, that is to say, it generates a budget surplus, excluding interest payments on public debt. And so if going to Italy the confidence of financial markets – that if the interest rate is not found at high levels (above 6% for bonds to 10 years) – it should not have difficult to stabilize its public debt.Finally, unlike Spain and Ireland, Italy has no problem with private debt.
Just accept the Italian population does a tax increase?
Italy is able to reform itself, it has proved in 1992 and 1993. But if she will be unable Silvio Berlusconi remains in office. The government's failure to carry out structural reforms to boost growth, coupled with the antics of "Il Cavaliere", eventually to exasperate the Italians. As in Spain, early elections must be organized. By this election, a new government must be established: either a national unity government, a government technique, including bureaucrats.This was the case in 1993, a year after the start of the crisis in Italy: the governor of the Italian central bank, no political label, was then elected Chairman and appointed several ministers among its senior officials. The choice of a technical government would nevertheless be a sign that politicians have lost the hand and have not lived up issues.
Finally, is not it a blessing in disguise that the note of Italy was worse?
Paradoxically, Italy can probably say thank you to Standard & Poor's and Moody's. The deterioration of the Italian note the merit of the heart of the debate lack of credibility of Silvio Berlusconi and increase pressure for his departure.While it is regrettable that the rating agencies and interfere in the democratic, political pressure has been mounting in recent months with the electoral success of the opposition and critics of the Confindustria (Italian MEDEF) and even its own majority. One can also regret that the rating agencies and the European states have expected the crisis to sound the alarm about the structural problems that have existed for many years.
Europe can sustainably support it Italy?
It is already doing through the interventions of the European Central Bank to calm speculation on the Italian debt. Once the Member States of the euro area have all ratified the agreement reached in July, the European Financial Stability Fund will take over. However, this support to Italy by its European partners can only buy time.Only reforms and the return to growth will allow Italy to escape the trap of debt inherited from the patronage and corruption which had prevailed during the years 1970 and 1980.
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