Oil: the global demand forecast revised upwards
The International Energy released Friday its monthly report, raising its forecast for demand in 2009 and 2010. The decline in global demand for black gold caused by the global recession would be less strong than expected this year.The IEA now foresees a decline of 1.6% over one year to 84.9 million barrels per day (bpd), while she was counting so far on a contraction of 1.7%.
For 2010, the IEA now expects demand to 86.3 million barrels per day, up 1.7% year on year, while it previously expected a more moderate increase of 1.6 %.
The "risk" that still weigh on industrialized countries, including the continued weakness of demand in the United States is offset by the strength of the recovery in emerging markets.
China and India are the resumption of global demand
"The early indicators better than expected in China and India, whose economies continue to benefit from government stimulus plans" should indeed be the global demand for oil, rising by 3.6% in 2009 to China.The IEA, however, surprised the "apparent discrepancy" between a limited consumption of gasoline and rising sales of cars in the country.
The IEA has estimated that the final price of a barrel of oil reaches $ 76 by 2014, at constant exchange rates, against $ 60 provided in its previous report. Friday, the price was changing between 70 and 71 dollars.
According to the scenario more gloomy global growth of 3% in 2014, oil demand should grow by an average of only 0.5%.