The respite will not last long on the market for European sovereign debt. The markets have once again played to scare Thursday and fears have focused on Lisbon. The return of Portuguese debt to ten years has indeed reached a level unprecedented since the creation of the euro, to 7.43%. The 7% threshold, estimated as the maximum interest rate for Portugal, has been crossed. The "spread" against German Bunds, that is to say, the premium demanded by investors to hold debt rather than Portuguese in Germany, rose to 440 points.
With this new record yield debt Portuguese, European Central Bank (ECB), which had suspended its buyback program for two weeks, had to return to duty. Traders said that the ECB had mainly bought the debt and Portuguese for relatively small amounts.The level of returns is then dropped to 7.404%.
Relief Fund: markets are getting impatient
Why this sudden adrenaline rush of investors? Thursday, no particular event or no ad would disrupt markets. Portugal has even done a show on Monday for which demand was sustained 6 billion euros for a 3-billion. Only the publication of inflation figures, which accelerated to 3.6% in January over a year, could "act as a trigger," said Patrick Jacq, a strategist at BNP Paribas.But it is especially for him a "pretext" seized by investors who wanted to get rid of their obligations Portuguese.
Indeed, a Malay would rather background behind these rate movements: Waiting for strong measures and reassuring European leaders, "markets are anxious and disturbed by the lack of communication," said Bertrand Michaud analyst at Louis Capital Markets. For several weeks the tension had fallen through discussions on increasing the financial stability of the Permanent Fund European (FESF), the European aid funds to countries in difficulty, and a convergence of economic policies of member states. Central banks had also reassured the markets by saying ready to intervene to redeem debt.Finally, the successful bond issues in Portugal and Spain in particular, and publication of economic indicators reassuring, particularly in Germany, contributed to this relaxation.
But markets are impatient again while discussions between member countries of the euro area have stalled. Last Friday, the leaders gathered at a special summit where Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have called for a "pact of competitiveness" among the seventeen countries, including "structural reforms" and a "closer economic cooperation" . But the concrete application of these statements will not be discussed before the next summit. "The EU summit has led to nothing, which was more or less expected, said Patrick Jacq. It was also understood that the Franco-German proposals were not necessarily accepted by other countries.In short, it's back problems in the euro area ". Consequence: increased nervousness of investors resulting in runaway journeys, rational markets as was the case yesterday.
Recession fears
Concerns are still doing over Portugal designated as next on the list after Greece and Ireland for a new rescue plan. Lisbon yet strives to give positive signs. The Government has therefore set a priority to reduce the public deficit to 4.6% of GDP this year, against about 7% in 2010. "In 2011, Portugal will achieve one of the most profound and ambitious fiscal adjustments (…), necessary to ensure the credibility of our economy on the international front, funding of our economy and its growth," said Prime Minister Jose Socrates.Portugal has also reported an estimated GDP growth of 1.3% in 2010, after falling 2.6% the previous year.
But for many economists, recession fears persist. The austerity measures, including the higher taxes and cuts in salaries of civil servants, should indeed stopping domestic consumption. "Portugal is not released at the prospect of using the potential FESF said Patrick Jacq. At this stage, it is a choice on their part but if I were the Portuguese taxpayer, I would prefer that the state borrows under the FESF for a lower rate. " But Portugal is determined not to resort to European funds: "There is no reason to believe that Portugal does not qualify to continue to appeal to markets.Quite the contrary, has said yesterday the Minister of the Presidency Pedro Silva Pereira, who has condemned the attacks speculative pushing up rates of bond yields in Portugal.
Patrick Jacq, interest rate movements important as that of yesterday are relative, however, given the current liquidity conditions. "This is not a significant degradation of the image of Portugal." The peripheral states of the euro area remains under pressure however, pending the outcome of the forthcoming summit of EU leaders on March 11.
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