White smoke comes not yet held Monday in Brussels, where a decisive meeting of the Eurogroup on Greece. It comes from the Italian Presidency in Rome, and the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.
After a phone conversation with Angela Merkel and Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos, Friday, Mario Monti issued a statement encouraging: "At the end of this conversation, which came in the details and which was conducted in a constructive spirit, three participants were confident that an agreement on Greece can be reached Monday, the Eurogroup. "
So far, mistrust prevailed. Especially since the previous Eurogroup, on Greece, was canceled Wednesday. "This time, an agreement is likely," said Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of the Bruegel think-tank in Brussels. "Otherwise it's too late, there will master more technical details …", he adds.
The challenge of this size Eurogroup is: give Greece its private creditors and the green light to launch the second bailout of Greece, estimated at 130 billion euros, to avoid a default in Greek debt falls from 14.5 billion euros on March 20.
That Greece is committed to the reforms demanded by the troika, beyond the April elections, Germany, Finland and the Netherlands had planned mid-week to split the bailout to not pay, firstly, that the sum needed to rescue private, or 30 billion euros.
Exchange of debt
But this scenario is complicated, difficult to read for the markets, has been criticized by the IMF and European lawyers, who see it as a source of additional blocking with private creditors, asked to relinquish 70% of the value of their securities. "This option is no longer on the table," said Deputy German Finance Minister, Thomas Steffen. "We are ready to have a solid basis for a decision Monday," says the German Finance Ministry in Berlin.
The European Central Bank has brought his stone to an eventual agreement. Its chairman, Mario Draghi, submitted Thursday night, the vote of the Governors, the exchange of 50 billion euros of Greek bonds, which should allow eventually to redistribute 12 billion euros to Greece, which allocated to debt repayment countries. For its part, the IMF would be willing to contribute to the new rescue plan by a loan of 13 billion euros, reported last night the Wall Street Journal on its website.
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