Christine Lagarde is good news. The Minister of Economy announced Thursday evening that the forecast deficit of France for 2011 is reduced to 5.7% of GDP as against 6% previously. "We had committed to 6% for the year 2011 and I will announce tomorrow that the European partners have recalibrated our goal to 5.7%," she said on the eve of a meeting Budapest with its European counterparts.
Christine Lagarde also said it "maintains its forecast for growth to 2% for 2011, given all the indicators in manufacturing or in services."
Acceleration of activity
In his memo on the economy released on Thursday, INSEE rightly emphasizes that economic activity in France in the first half of 2011 will see an "acceleration"."In our scenario, the shocks go, resist the activity," summarized Sandrine Duchêne, head of the economic situation of the Institute.
INSEE, includes such an "acceleration of activity in early 2011 in France with a" rebound "of 0.6% growth in first quarter (compared to first quarter 2010), driven by manufacturing, followed by a "slowdown" to 0.4% in the second. France was well into mid-table European with Germany in pole position (1.1% in the first quarter, 0.6% in the second, according to INSEE).
To achieve the 2% increase announced by Christine Lagarde, France should show 0.7% in each of the third and fourth quarters, noted Jean-François Ouvrard, Head of Division cyclical synthesis.A new upturn in the economy would be necessary.
Rebound in exports
According to the institute, the French economy has benefited from a "rebound in exports early this year" in an international environment considered a "carrier". INSEE also relies on a catch-up "point" in public works, after a harsh winter. "A dynamic self-sustaining recovery has also been engaged for several quarters in France and consolidated, based on investment and employment," says Sandrine Duchêne.
Household consumption would be favored at the beginning of the year by the effects of "tail" of scrapping with the delivery of vehicles ordered before December 31, 2010.
The "shock" of food prices
Regarding the purchasing power of households, Insee said it would progress only (+0.1%) in the first quarter of 2011, before the second 0.3%.It would be sealed by the "resurgence of inflation" found after the oil shock of recent months. According to INSEE, inflation would be 1.9% year on year in June against 1.8% in December.
The "shock" to come will likely be about food. "Rising raw material was passed shortly, French singularity ', and its impact on consumer prices by distributors should intervene in the coming months.
Unemployment stabilized at mid-year
Regarding employment, the paper discusses the INSEE stabilization of unemployment by mid-2011. "On the horizon of the forecast, the unemployment rate would stabilize.It would amount to 9.1% of the workforce in France (9.5% including Dom), at the end of the second quarter of 2011, "INSEE said.
The increase in jobs in the first half of this year should be a little stronger than that of the working population (29,000 people) "supported" by phasing out the exemption from seeking employment. Because between January and June 2011, job creation would total 76,000 posts.
In the commercial sector (excluding agriculture), the most sensitive to economic conditions and has restarted last year, 78,000 new jobs would emerge, after 60,000 in the second half of 2010. 10,000 jobs would be created as non-employees.But in the non-profit, employment decrease of 7,000 positions, "because of declining admissions in subsidized contracts, while farm workers would fall by 5,000.
Through the mechanism of adjustment of wages to inflation, they should increase. But, despite this increase in nominal wages, real wages should remain stable in the first half, especially against the resurgence of inflation. "In Public, real wages continue early 2011 slowdown that began in 2010." The average salary per capita (SMTP) growth would fall by 0.9%.
No contagion from the debt crisis
Prudente, INSEE noted however that a number of uncertainties could affect its forecasts commme tensions on European sovereign debt."The current crisis seems to be very localized in Portugal," says Sandrine Duchêne, however, saying "the risks of contagion to all sovereign debt of the eurozone less important that a few months."
(With agencies)
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