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Meeting for the first Holland Merkel in Berlin on Tuesday hours after the presidential inauguration, the new Franco-German duo has been scrutinized from every angle.

There is one in which France did not shine in comparison: growth. While our neighbor across the Rhine announced an increase of 0.5% of GDP in the first three months of the year – far more than anticipated by economists – the Hexagon was pale with sluggish growth (0 %) over the same period. An expected figure, certainly, but all the more disappointing that the 2011 fourth quarter was revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%.

Some will see the sign that Francois Hollande must persist in its intention to renegotiate the pact with Germany in the European budgetary discipline to introduce a component of growth – what is opposite the German ruling. Others will worry about the weak position of the Hexagon before the arduous negotiation Responding to the country confirms that the only real powerhouse of the eurozone.

The growth figure of France for the first quarter confirms the tonality of the beginning of the quinquennium of the new president. Francois Hollande already knows he can not count on any boost in the short term for the conditions to implement its program.

Production of "idle"

None of the drivers of growth and gives no sign of strength: consumer expenditures of households are "sluggish" (0.2% in the first quarter, after +0.1% the previous one), while investment companies folds (-1.4%), INSEE said. And if reconnect with imports rising, it does not compensate for slowing exports enough to prevent the trade weighs on growth. As for the production of goods and services, it turns "idle". In total, the growth overhang at the end of March – that is to say, the theoretical progression of GDP if the activity remained stable until the end of the year – amounted to 0.2%.

In short, Francois Hollande will have to deal with an uncertain environment. Even more uncertain than the events in Greece could get involved … If time is not yet at risk of contagion to the Hexagon, "we must avoid the chaotic moments that disturb everyone, Greece, is 2% of EU GDP, but this may be part of the little things that become large if not managed properly, "said an official of Bercy cash advance in one hour.

Francois Hollande, he believes in his ability to bounce activity. His lieutenant, Michel Sapin, cites as evidence the industrial policy announced – more favorable, he said, growth – and European initiatives to materialize before he sees the end of next year, thanks to an agreement between France and Germany.

In fact, the new team has no choice if she wants to meet his campaign promises and not be obliged to review all its forecasts. Less growth, this means more unemployment, more deficit and more debt. But the intangible commitment is to return to 3% public deficit in 2013. Francois Hollande can not afford any off the road.

2011 debt adjusted slightly up

INSEE has completed the 2011 accounts. The Institute of Statistics was first confirmed on Tuesday that the general government deficit stood at the end of the year to 103.1 billion euros, or 5.2% of GDP. Compared to 2010, he was reduced from 33.9 billion euros, "because both the revenue buoyancy and expenditure restraint." The new president pledged to reduce the public deficit to 4.5% of GDP at end 2012 and to 3% in 2013. To balance its budget equation, Francois Hollande has on growth (see above), but it also provided 29 billion in additional revenue by the end of 2013.

The weight of public debt, meanwhile, has reached an unprecedented level, 86% of GDP, 3.7 points higher than the end of 2010. At a 717.3 billion, it is also a bit more than the number that was announced in late March (85.8%). Finally, the tax burden, estimated at 43.9% (against 43.8% previously), was up 1.4 points compared to 2010.

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Vivendi confirmed Monday, after market, the departure of Frank Esser, CEO of SFR, revealed by Le Figaro. This departure will be effective from the end of the week. Jean-Bernard Levy, CEO of Vivendi, this function takes live indefinitely. No other redesign teams SFR is expected. The announcement of a smooth transition reassured the 10,000 employees of SFR, where the announcement of the departure of Frank Esser, who presided over the destiny of the group for twelve years, has been a bombshell.

Vivendi wants to take the time to find a new boss for its subsidiary SFR, a pivotal moment in its history. Greatly shaken by the arrival of Free in the mobile sector, Vodafone is obliged to rethink its economic model. And why the research group "rare bird". Several names of potential candidates circulate: Bertrand Meheut (current CEO of Canal +), Thierry Breton (CEO of Atos), Didier Quillot (former CEO of Lagardère Active), Michel Combes (CEO Vodafone Europe), Gilles Pelisson (ex- Accor CEO) and Jacques Veyrat (Direct Energy) … But none is needed.

One thing is certain, the chosen one will have a profile of "cost killer" while SFR expects a decrease of 12% to 15% of its EBITDA margin in 2012 and Jean-Bernard Levy said at the Vivendi earnings presentation in early March, the need to "tighten the bolts." The future head of SFR should be able to reassure financial markets, while the decline in profitability of SFR weighs on Vivendi. The stock has lost 17% since the beginning of the year.

The departure of Frank Esser was decided Friday afternoon during a supervisory board of Vivendi, and presented Monday at 5:00 p.m. in the Board of SFR. It does not seem to be a coup as often in the wars of succession, but a decision by mutual agreement. Friday, same day that his fate was sealed, Frank Esser was attending a lunch with the entire executive of Vivendi, in which Jean-Rene Fourtou, director of Vivendi, and Jean-Bernard Levy have sent him some very complimentary. Frank Esser, Mannesmann's German came (acquired by Vodafone), is indeed recognized and appreciated by both teams by his peers.

Free to adjust the face

But, before the onslaught of Free Mobile, it was essential to give new impetus to SFR, which lost 200,000 customers between 10 January and late February. "Jean-Bernard Levy knows SFR. We are confident in its ability to revitalize all appear the beginnings of a stabilization of the situation. After the initial excitement, Free began to experience a certain loss, "said a spokesman for Vivendi.

The task does not look easy. We'll have to cut some expenses without burdening the future. "In the hundreds of service developments underway at SFR, it will have to choose between those that are essential for the future and those who can be stopped, says an inside source. Always painful choices that force teams to redeploy réinternalisant projects that were previously outsourced to external service providers. "The suppliers and providers of SFR should be the first affected by this clampdown.

Add paid features

It will also have to rethink the positioning packaging opportunities. Free Mobile face, all operators have launched entry-level offerings, sold only on the Web at very aggressive prices. But where Bouygues Telecom, the first chopping last July, has managed to impose "B & You", followed by Orange with "Sosh" SFR has not really enticing with its brand "Red" launched in late September.

But offers low-cost, direct response to Free, are not the only priorities. The operators were able over time to all-inclusive packages (visual voicemail, MMS, mobile Internet …). We must now all unravel for a basic package comparable to that of Free, which you must add a number of services at extra cost. A vast perspective.

Guided by prudence and using a firm fingering, Angela Merkel hopes to finally bring his talents to HRD. German Chancellor, nothing could contribute as much to instill the "culture of stability Germanic" within the European Union that the appointment of his finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, at the head of the Eurogroup. The Financial Times Deutschland, Berlin is active behind the scenes in Brussels to impose this appointment.

The current head of the Eurogroup, Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker, whose term expires in June, said he would not re-enlist. Refusing to comment on the rumors surrounding Schäuble, Berlin, however, refrained from any lie. Schäuble "is an excellent Minister of Finance and plays an important role" in the Eurogroup, was content to meet the Chancellor. "A series of appointments ahead" in Europe, she said simply.

Ratage ECB

According to an agreement within the EU, appointments to the head of the Eurogroup, the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), as Chief of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Director of the European bailout fund (SS) must be negotiated in a block. If Merkel gets the nomination of his finance minister at the head of the Eurogroup, she will forfeit seek the leadership of the MES for the German Klaus Regling, current director of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) fast payday loan.

Angela Merkel, who missed one after the appointment of a German head of the ECB, then the position of chief economist of the institution, actively probe its partners.

The weight of the AAA

Experienced, respected and influential, Wolfgang Schäuble, 69, "has the best cards" to chair this group which brings together the finance ministers of the euro area, ensures the Financial Times Deutschland. Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, busy with his duties, and Finland's Jyrki Katainen have both declined the direction of the Eurogroup. Early in the week, Wolfgang Schäuble had implicitly placed in the race, ruling that the countries receiving AAA "are more likely to nominate a candidate" at the head of the Eurogroup.

However, the French president has not given its assent to the appointment of Schäuble. "Nicolas Sarkozy fears that Germany's position becomes too strong," writes the FTD. The paper added that the secretary general of the Elysee, Xavier Muscat, covets the leadership of SS.

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On February 20, during the auction of the hamlet of Courbefy, located 40 km southwest of Limoges, no buyer had appeared, despite a retail price of only 300,000 euros. With the effect of media coverage, between 150 and 200 buyers from around the world are scrambling to try to acquire this highly original property, offered for sale price of a two-room Paris.

Without buyers, the entire village, 19 rustic buildings in various states, the boxes for horses, pool, tennis court, culminating in nearly 557 meters high with a beautiful view of the mountains of Chalus in the Périgord Limousin regional park, should return to Credit Agricole, creditor's last owner who could not repay the loan. Its proposed resort, launched in 2003, has never worked and went bankrupt, causing the abandonment of the site in 2008.

The news of the sale of Courbefy was first taken up by the media in France, before being scattered by the whole world, fascinated by the idea that a whole village could be sold for a price as ridiculous . "Admittedly, this is an offer very original, very unique, because the entire village is sold at once," says Mr. Paul Le Figaro Gérardin, counsel for the Credit Agricole. "It's because someone has bought one by one all the houses after the abandonment of the hamlet."

After being abandoned by its last inhabitants in the 1970s due to rural exodus, the small village of Courbefy might find occupants with a last minute deal last Thursday filed with the court registry by Limoges an American company, AHAE Press, registered in the State of New York. This entity belongs to the Korean-born American photographer Ahae, artist specializing in landscape photography and wildlife, whose exhibition "Through my window" must be presented at the Louvre in Paris from June 26 to July 23.

With its 10% deposit of the purchase price, the sale process is restarted, and new auction will take place at court of Limoges on May 21. "I'm sure will be many bidders," suggests Paul Gérardin me. "We have already responded to 150 to 200 inquiries from around the world. Initial requests are first come from the Paris region, London, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden and other European countries before coming the United Arab Emirates, China, U.S. and Russian. "

One potential buyers, a Dutchman, wants to use the hamlet for a reality TV show in which participants would call premises in shape.

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"Whatever the horizon, the sun is unavoidable in our energy mix, as well prepared." Consultant with the firm Kurt Salmon, Celine Alléaume strongly believes in developing the sector in France and its performance on international markets, provided a policy and regulatory framework more stable and certainly more readable. A few weeks before elections, the firm Kurt Salmon and the think-tank France Monday Territory Solar publish the first edition of the Observatory for solar photovoltaics.

"This is an evolving tool, which will be updated and expanded every quarter. Relying on public data, our goal is to provide clear indicators that help to objectify the debate, "said Celine Alléaume.

The photovoltaic park remains marginal

The main finding of the observatory is hardly conducive to optimism: over the last two years, the French photovoltaic park has certainly developed to exceed the 2300-megawatt (MW) combined-connected power, but it remains marginal while digging its lag behind the most advanced countries. "The residential market, initial engine market and generates employment, came into decay since the moratorium of 2 December 2010. Other markets may follow the same trend in the next two years, "says this inaugural edition. According to several players, more than half the jobs in the sector (about 25,000 at the origin) have been destroyed over the past year.

For Celine Alléaume, the goal of the Grenelle Environment -5 gigawatts by 2020 – is already obsolete: "Other countries are growing so fast that the target should be revised upwards. If the government maintains, the French industry will not find that more difficult to place in world markets. Today, we talk a lot of sun in France but its weight is insignificant (0.29% of electricity production in 2011). "

Celine Alléaume still puts forward the statistics of the American NGO Pew Charitable Trust to attest to the weakness of the French position: "On some 56 billion invested in small solar projects in 2010, France has only counted a little over 3 billion. Similarly, while more than 22 GW were installed in Germany until 2011, our country has only one just over 2.5 GW. "Under these conditions, the whole" animation "of one sector and sectors that remains to be clarified: positioning research, choice of technology marketing, distribution of roles and responsibilities across the value chain

.

Will it towards a form of judicial dismissals as it once existed an administrative authorization? The high courts have recently banned two French companies to implement a social plan. The reason is simple. These two companies, and Vivéo Sodimedical, loss of competitiveness in the domestic market belong to foreign groups financially healthy and judges have ruled on the lack of economic rationale to implement a social plan. Decisions since confirmed by the appellate courts of Paris and Reims.

"This is a first," protested Nicolas Sauvage, member of Avosial, the influential lawyers' union in labor law, which has just sent a letter to presidential candidates asking them to "take a stand" on the issue. A first for three reasons. "Not only is there no provision in the Labor Code which allows a judge to conclude, before a social plan is triggered, the lack of economic rationale and cancel it in stride, but it intrudes more and doing it in company management, which is prohibited by the Civil Code, "argues Nicolas Sauvage.

The lawyer also notes that only the employment tribunals may cancel an ex post social – and not, ex ante, the high court – because of the absence or insufficiency of rehabilitation measures put in implemented. And therefore condemn the offending companies to pay damages as compensation.

To him, the danger is all the more important that the Social Chamber of the Supreme Court, whose judgments regularly give a cold sweat at all DRH de France, is a crucial hearing next Tuesday in the case Vivéo cash advance. His judgment will be delivered mid-March. After being bought by a competitor in 2010, this French software for bank trading rooms wanted to restructure to cope with the collapse of its activity after the crisis. But as he belongs to a German group to blooming health, the Court of Appeal of Paris has forbidden, while no departure had yet been reached.

Question attractive

According Avosial, confirmation of this judgment to the Supreme Court would create "a huge uncertainty for employers, small or large groups, French or foreign." It would encourage companies to "wait to be on the brink rather than anticipating the tough decisions" that may require the use of downsizing for a company to remain competitive. "The vast majority of restructuring is to sustain an activity and not to make profits to increase capitalization," argues Nicolas Sauvage.

Such confirmation could also be opened "the door to the prohibition of dismissal in France" and harm "to the attractiveness of France and its ability to retain or create jobs," says Nicolas Sauvage.

Also addresses the presidential candidates, Avosial hope that the Supreme Court will recall a fundamental principle of French law which states that there is' no nullity without text. " Verdict in less than one month.

Time is now against Silvio Berlusconi. He must prove to the faster it puts its promises into action.

The head of the Italian Government is committed to the adoption by Parliament before Nov. 15 its plan to revive growth, the first stage at least. The measures were approved Wednesday by the Cabinet. Among the main liberalization of regulated professions and local public services, commitment to gradually raise the retirement age to 67, administrative simplification, auction of 15 billion euros in property assets of the state in three years.

This plan is in addition to 54 billion budget savings passed in September to restore public finances to balance by 2013, when the deficit reached 3.9% this year.

The first event will be played next week in the Senate.

French bond yields increasingly deviates from the reference German. And if the price that France has to pay its creditors rises relative to that payable by the neighbor across the Rhine, is that the repayment capacity is considered less French.

This distrust on observed past few days has increased further this Tuesday morning, after a warning from the rating agency Moody's. The French rate to ten years and have removed more than 1% (100 basis points) German rates, which are the reference unwavering in terms of sovereign bonds in Europe.

A disturbing record since the introduction of the single currency. On the London market, the French rate to ten years in the early morning reached 3.04%, while its German equivalent, the "Bund", down 9 basis points (-0.09%) to 2%.

At the same time, insurance (CDS) against a default on the obligations of the French state have seen their costs rise significantly. CDS to five years in France and were up 10 basis points shortly after 9:40, to 194 basis points according to Markit data. In other words, it costs 194,000 euros to insure against exposure to 10 million euros of bonds.

The gap could widen further

"We must relativize the gap (called the" spread ") bond rates between France and Germany: the level of French is extremely low rates, grade Cyril Regnat, strategist at Natixis. The ten-year French course is slightly above 3%, but the last five years, it stood at an average of 3.75%.In these circumstances, the spread can still dig a little. "The analyst believes, however, that the cost of debt already includes a breakdown of the French note one notch to AA +.

On this point, however, opinions differ. "The decline of the note is not yet in the curves: the rate could still rise from 30 to 50 basis points, that is to say 0.3 to 0.5% in the worst case, and reach a rate differential with Germany of 150 basis points, or 1 guaranteed cash advance.5%, "calculates Norbert Gaillard *, consultant to the World Bank and specialist rating agencies.

Why the interest rate differential between France and Germany increases

The rising cost of the French debt occurs observed Tuesday morning despite the fact that Moody's has taken more precautions than ever to launch his warning."She chose a time when the stress in the markets was relatively peaceful and has added a step ahead of the traditional reporting system in three stages," Norbert Gaillard analysis. Usually, the agency established the first note of the country "negative outlook" and then put the note "under review" before degrading it if necessary.

"It is very likely that the next move by Moody's, provided in three months, or to place a negative outlook on the rating of France," said Norbert Gaillard."How the country can indeed solve the three problems it faces: slow growth, deficit reduction and the difficulties of Greece and its banking system?"

In this context, "the Moody's decision means that the French can not help itself with its banks without risking his note: it has more room for maneuver necessary," Judge Cyril Regnat. "If the banks recapitalize without the state, then the fears will be evacuated on the AAA market and we should see an easing of interest rates." Investors have already understood: after the warning from Moody's, French banks have dropped the stock market.

* Author of "A Century of Sovereign Ratings", ed.Springer (USA), 2012

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The influx of voters on the Socialist primary this Sunday will reduce the cost of the operation. In fact, a minimum contribution of one euro was requested to the voters to fund the organization of the election. Thus, in addition to a successful democratic movement of the two and a half million participants in the election allows the party to reduce the bill of 2.5 million euros at least. In an interview with L'Express. Fr, Régis Juanico, the treasurer of the PS, acknowledged recently that "often, voters give more," the gifts of up to 150 euros.

Voter participation could offset the overall cost of the operation, however, revised upwards. The latest estimates by the Socialist Party reported a budget of 3.5 million euros, against 1.5 million originally planned.In an interview with Journal du Dimanche, the spokesman of the High Authority of the primary, the lawyer Jean-Pierre Mignard estimated that this cost is related primarily to "the need to recover a significant number of voters who were in the wrong format. "

Moreover, strengthening the means of control is more weighed on the invoice. In particular, the PS did not foresee the rental digital pens to prevent fraud. The cost would reach 300,000 euros guaranteed pay day loans. Similarly, the recruitment of many bailiffs should have a significant cost, recognized Jean-Pierre Mignard.

Elected officials and activists in support of the campaign budget

In addition, the campaign paid envelope to each candidate was revised upwards just before the campaign. Thus, each participant had € 50,000 instead of 30,000.A total re-evaluated to finance new travel and meetings and printing of new leaflets.

But the two favorites polls, Francois Hollande who collected 39% of the vote to Martine Aubry (31%) did not hesitate to seek their support, politicians and activists, to finance their campaigns. In the end, the campaign of François Hollande should cost 250,000 euros to 200,000 euros against Martine Aubry. The deputy director of the campaign Arnaud Montebourg, John Palacin, recently reported that the campaign Arnaud Montebourg cost nearly 100,000 euros, funded in part by the militants.

Only the winner of the primary campaigns will have their accounts credited to the budget allocated to the presidential campaign.

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These days, the majority had disagreed on some measures of the austerity plan as the VAT increase in theme parks and the end rebates on real estate gains. The government has heard from members and changed its copy.

Real estate capital gains: exempt after thirty years

So far, the real estate gains from the sale of second home or rental investment have benefited from a system of allowances that could significantly reduce the tax liability. To calculate the taxable gain, a reduction of 10% per annum applied after five years in prison. What amounted to a total exemption after two years. As part of the austerity plan presented on 24 August, the government decided to remove any abatement, and the next day.The added value (for inflation) would have been taxed at 32.5%, regardless of the holding period. Unacceptable to many members of the majority, led by the rapporteur of the budget Gilles Carrez UMP.

The government preferred to find a compromise with them, which should logically be adopted by the Assembly on Tuesday. The abatements are restored, with a grid less generous than before: 2% between the sixth and fifteenth year of ownership, 3% between the sixteenth and twenty-fifth, 10% above the twenty-fifth. This will lead to a reduction of half in twenty-five years and total exemption after thirty years. The French may still take several months for rebates of 10%, the new system applies only to final deeds of sale signed on 1 February 2012.To finance this relaxation (180 million "lost" to the state in 2011, 195 million in 2012), it was decided, inter alia, to submit to French taxation, via a deed, the sale of shares of Civil Society Real Estate (SCI) performed from abroad but on French goods.

Companies: Consolidated Global Profit loss

Always return to fund rebates on real estate gains, MEPs adopted on Wednesday the proposed Bercy to end the regime of worldwide profits, which can deduct the losses of profits by foreign subsidiaries. Total Vivendi or benefit. Another source of funding: the extent of the share of capital gains on disposal of subsidiary (leading to an exemption from capital gains to 90% instead of 95%) is brought forward to 1 January 2011.Finally, as announced August 24 by François Fillon, one of the articles of the bill limits the back and carry forward a deficit. From 2011, the deferral on profits can only be done earlier than one year (instead of three). The postponement of the deficit on the profits of subsequent years will be capped (at 60% of income in excess of 1 million euros).

Luxury hotels: four euros per night

The government had to give up the VAT on theme parks. To compensate for the shortfall of 90 million per year, Bercy and the members voted to create a 2% tax affecting luxury hotels including nights at a price greater than or equal to 200 euros.