Meeting for the first Holland Merkel in Berlin on Tuesday hours after the presidential inauguration, the new Franco-German duo has been scrutinized from every angle.

There is one in which France did not shine in comparison: growth. While our neighbor across the Rhine announced an increase of 0.5% of GDP in the first three months of the year – far more than anticipated by economists – the Hexagon was pale with sluggish growth (0 %) over the same period. An expected figure, certainly, but all the more disappointing that the 2011 fourth quarter was revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%.

Some will see the sign that Francois Hollande must persist in its intention to renegotiate the pact with Germany in the European budgetary discipline to introduce a component of growth – what is opposite the German ruling. Others will worry about the weak position of the Hexagon before the arduous negotiation Responding to the country confirms that the only real powerhouse of the eurozone.

The growth figure of France for the first quarter confirms the tonality of the beginning of the quinquennium of the new president. Francois Hollande already knows he can not count on any boost in the short term for the conditions to implement its program.

Production of "idle"

None of the drivers of growth and gives no sign of strength: consumer expenditures of households are "sluggish" (0.2% in the first quarter, after +0.1% the previous one), while investment companies folds (-1.4%), INSEE said. And if reconnect with imports rising, it does not compensate for slowing exports enough to prevent the trade weighs on growth. As for the production of goods and services, it turns "idle". In total, the growth overhang at the end of March – that is to say, the theoretical progression of GDP if the activity remained stable until the end of the year – amounted to 0.2%.

In short, Francois Hollande will have to deal with an uncertain environment. Even more uncertain than the events in Greece could get involved … If time is not yet at risk of contagion to the Hexagon, "we must avoid the chaotic moments that disturb everyone, Greece, is 2% of EU GDP, but this may be part of the little things that become large if not managed properly, "said an official of Bercy cash advance in one hour.

Francois Hollande, he believes in his ability to bounce activity. His lieutenant, Michel Sapin, cites as evidence the industrial policy announced – more favorable, he said, growth – and European initiatives to materialize before he sees the end of next year, thanks to an agreement between France and Germany.

In fact, the new team has no choice if she wants to meet his campaign promises and not be obliged to review all its forecasts. Less growth, this means more unemployment, more deficit and more debt. But the intangible commitment is to return to 3% public deficit in 2013. Francois Hollande can not afford any off the road.

2011 debt adjusted slightly up

INSEE has completed the 2011 accounts. The Institute of Statistics was first confirmed on Tuesday that the general government deficit stood at the end of the year to 103.1 billion euros, or 5.2% of GDP. Compared to 2010, he was reduced from 33.9 billion euros, "because both the revenue buoyancy and expenditure restraint." The new president pledged to reduce the public deficit to 4.5% of GDP at end 2012 and to 3% in 2013. To balance its budget equation, Francois Hollande has on growth (see above), but it also provided 29 billion in additional revenue by the end of 2013.

The weight of public debt, meanwhile, has reached an unprecedented level, 86% of GDP, 3.7 points higher than the end of 2010. At a 717.3 billion, it is also a bit more than the number that was announced in late March (85.8%). Finally, the tax burden, estimated at 43.9% (against 43.8% previously), was up 1.4 points compared to 2010.

ALSO READ:

"France remains the target of 3% deficit in 2013

"The continued fragility of the European economy

"Merkel is against Holland on budget pact

One million cases of 24 bottles. This is what qu'Orangina has elapsed in the first four days of its launch large scale in Japan, three weeks ago. "We did in four days half of our annual goal, welcomes Midori Takahashi, in charge of public relations for the Suntory Group, owner of Orangina. We aim 2 million cases a year. "

The brand has a massive arrival on the shelves in Japan. Orangina is supported by an impressive advertising campaign led by U.S. actor Richard Gere, directed in a dream of France under the slogan: "Orangina, the soft drink that drink the French, is finally in Japan!" In supermarkets, it is advisable to mix the soda with red wine, "French". Suntory plays the card of the Hexagon, in a landscape crowded Japanese soft drinks. In 2010, Nobu Torii, head of international development strategy of Suntory and nephew of the founder, had gone to ask the French government for permission to use the tricolor on his promotion.

Japan had long awaited the famous soft drink. In 2009, the Japanese brewer Suntory bought Orangina Schweppes Group for 2.6 billion euros, according to Western press of the time. Then the winds Japanese fleet on the brand. Last year, the launch of Orangina Samurai (lemon flavor) and Orangina Geisha (fish taste) have included the passage of the mark under the Japanese flag.

The pub does not recommend shaking the bottle

Japanese version of Orangina was to be launched in 2011. Fukushima disaster has postponed the launch. The drink, so she immediately found a place in the heart of the Japanese, has disappointed the French living in Japan, who reveal "less pulp and more bubbles." Sugar levels and gasification of the formula was changed at the margin. The bottle-shaped orange mythical underwent a fitness class and finds himself almost as slender as that of Coca-Cola, she sees in grocery stores.

"We tried to be as faithful as possible to the original brand and the bottle, because the Japanese really appreciated this drink in its original form, defends Midori Takahashi. But we need to replicate the formula with Japanese ingredients, and according to the Japanese guns. And the famous bottle could be reproduced at the factory and did not take on Japanese store shelves. "

Result: a pale copy of the original, in French eyes, anyway. Advertising even recommends to the Orangina upside down instead of shaking frantically, without which the drink is exploding in the consumer's hand. Suntory does currently not launch outside the borders Nipponese. But it is not clear, despite the marketing of drums, which could attract foreign in this drink has become a bit bland, neither Japanese nor French.

ALSO READ:

"The Japanese whiskey is attracting more and more

"Suntory bet on health products to boost sales

Switzerland scored a point in the standoff that pitted him against Washington on banking secrecy. The Federal Administrative Court, one of the highest courts of Confederation, April 5 opposite end of inadmissibility to the IRS claimed that the transmission of names of clients of Credit Suisse, suspected of tax evasion. The judge considers that such data would be contrary to the bilateral tax treaty dating from 1996 and still in force. Switzerland is committed in March 2009, to comply with OECD standards for exchanging information that eliminate the distinction between fraud and tax evasion, but the new agreement, signed in June 2009 between the two countries, n has still not been ratified

.

Swiss court does not take into account an amendment to this agreement, voted on March 5 by the Swiss Parliament, which authorizes collective applications from the IRS. "The court decision complicates the government's position, who wants to reach an agreement with the United States," you recognize in Bern.

Three years after officially renounced its banking secrecy, Switzerland is still leading the fight to preserve the attractiveness of its financial center. She leads him on two fronts: against the United States where the Helvetic Confederation resists transfer of bank data, and at European level by negotiating tax agreements that preserve the anonymity of customers.

The precedent of the UBS case

This is the United States that the battle is the hardest. Beyond Credit Suisse, ten institutions are in the crosshairs of the IRS, with the implicit threat of removing banking licenses. In the case of UBS, who had come to shatter the secrecy in 2010, the Administrative Court had already refused the transfer of data. Until Parliament gives green light and ends in 5000 bank data delivered to U.S. authorities.

Switzerland is in a better position in negotiations with the EU, has always been divided on tax issues. If France calls for an end to bank secrecy, through the automatic exchange of information, other countries including Britain and Germany, Austria, Greece and the Netherlands are tempted to accept the Rubik agreements: a withholding "quick and effective" that pays billions to state coffers – $ 10 billion in Germany in exchange for preserving the anonymity of accounts.

So far, Switzerland has signed two agreements "Rubik" with Britain and Germany. Yet to pass the test of Parliaments. In Germany, the Bundesrat – Upper House – dominated by the Social Democrats could oppose a text "which guarantees the anonymity of fraudsters." His vote, expected in June, will be decisive for Switzerland.

ALSO READ:

"Banking secrecy: Switzerland yields to Washington

"Accounts in Switzerland: Towards new rules

"Tax Evasion: Switzerland wants to tighten its laws

"Switzerland is in a dilemma facing its banks

Louis Welsh, CEO of aerospace group EADS, Airbus' parent company, for another few months, had assured him a few weeks ago the BBC: "We will continue and we will resist external interference." The confirmation of the German Ministry of Economics of a possible rise of Berlin the capital of the group could make the mission more difficult. The German government has indeed made a provision that could be used to repurchase additional shares of EADS.

Last November, Berlin had confirmed the recovery of half of the shares of the automaker Daimler, or 7.5%. The aim of the German government was not to lose ground against the French government retaining these shares in the lap of Germany.

But Berlin could therefore go beyond. The government has made a provision so that the public bank KF – who had already intervened in the case Daimler – can optionally be able to take additional units, the ministry said. In Focus, 4.5% stake now held by a group of private investors, shareholders also 60% of a consortium named Dedalus. This last group of public and private investors, includes, alongside great names of German finance Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Allianz, regional states in which EADS operates in Germany (Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Hamburg and Bremen ). Dedalus has a total of 7.5% of the aerospace group.

Power relations

By the end of the year, the consortium Dedalus might decide to sell 4.5% stake. If he offers to the German State, it will be obliged to redeem them, the ministry said. Deutsche Bank and Allianz, who took 10% of each Dedalus at the time of formation of the structure in 2007, did not comment. According to the Financial Times Deutschland, the provision of government reach 1.6 billion euros. The new acquisition would amount to 12% of Berlin's participation in the capital of EADS. According to Les Echos, it could reach 13% if we add the 1% held by the public bank KfW in Dedalus. In front, France has 15% stake, and Lagardère 7.5%.

The balance of power at EADS are a sensitive subject. Recently, the German government has expressed its fears of excessive weight of France in his eyes in the division of roles and assignment of key posts, including the changeover from the center of gravity of EADS in Toulouse. Thomas Enders, Airbus President and current successor of Louis Galois, had proposed to his headquarters in Toulouse.

ALSO READ:

"EADS Germany to 12% of the capital?

"EADS will resist any interference in its management

"Investors are scrambling to enter the capital of EADS

"Qatar is keen interest in EADS

The Swiss are about to bolster their reputation for needy people. They will vote Sunday on whether to increase the minimum paid leave of four to six weeks per year. They should, if one believes an RTS survey released this week, overwhelmingly reject this offer, 30% of respondents only showing himself to be favorable.

In the employers and government, the vote on March 11, organized at the initiative of the union Travail.Suisse, unsurprisingly raises hostility. Swiss companies are concerned that this increase in leisure time would harm the competitiveness of a country where labor costs are already among the highest in the world. With the key, they are in custody, a rising unemployment. At 4.2% in 2010, the unemployment rate Helvetic is currently one of the lowest in the OECD.  

The French model which appears as a perfect example-cons. Since the law on the 35 hours they were "much more free time than the Swiss and it did not bring much," judge the employers' organization economiesuisse. "The unemployment rate is high, the economy has weakened and the French were wearing pale twice as often as the Swiss," says the organization.

The unions, meanwhile, argue that the productivity Swiss jumped 20% in 1992 and 2007, and it's fair that employees derive some benefits. According to them, two weeks extra vacation would also reduce the stress suffered by third asset.

Conquest of paid leave late

Within the Swiss population, the reluctance of employers to amend the social model seems widely shared. "These holidays that prevent work in peace" was the headline in mid-February the daily Le Temps. The RTS survey highlights that the Swiss Latin are more attracted by the proposal that the Swiss allémaniques, over 40% against 30% in the general population. But Le Matin claims that the work is valued highly consensual. And remember that for over half a century, all efforts to shorten the working week were unsuccessful.

The conquest of paid leave was made later in Switzerland than in France. It was not until 1964 has been entered in the 'Code of Obligations "to give the workers a minimum of two weeks paid vacation per year. The right to four weeks will be introduced 20 years later. Even if some collective agreements already provide a framework more favorable than the statutory minimum, "let it be said here, it is not in France, insists Time. 1936, paid holidays decreed by Leon Blum, the hordes of workers blissful hurling on the N7, it's not with us. "

ALSO READ:

"Working time in Europe

In Frankfurt as in Hollywood, blockbusters at the box office still have a following. With its new Governor Mario Draghi at the wand, the European Central Bank (ECB) had a box in rooms (market) on December 21, proposing to banks in the euro area loans to three years paid at the rate of favorable 1%: some 523 banks had then drew 489 billion euros to the general treasurer. The central bank on Wednesday repeated with a second offer of funding under the same conditions.

As in December, the operation on tap the ECB had passed almost unnoticed, as this new album monopolizes attention. Meanwhile, in effect, operators have discovered the virtues of this infusion of cash, which "played a crucial stabilizing effect on financial markets in the euro area," said the rating agency Fitch.

How? By reversing the downward spiral that led states and banks in the southern countries of Europe towards the precipice. In addition to the invoice Greek tensions on sovereign debt Italy and Spain have indeed weakened the banks of these countries throughout 2011, boomerang-feeding fears about these states, leaving the specter of a rescue banking. The risk that France has to support its banking system has also weighed in the loss of AAA inflicted mid-January by the rating agency Standard & Poor's.

By flooding the banking system liquidity in the medium term, the ECB has caused a twofold benefit: one, the risk of going off the road an Italian or Spanish bank has moved away and two, these institutions are now able to support States by buying their sovereign debt. Hence the almost universal relief: relaxation rates on sovereign debt Italian or Spanish, rising stock markets, banks' resumption of emission payday advance… No wonder investors want more. How many banks ask they this time? Estimates vary between 200 billion and 1000 billion. With the idea that the higher the amount, the higher the markets will appreciate, because these are all new cash should get involved.

Virility contest

This vision reflects the optimism that blows from the beginning of the year. Not long ago, a massive use of banks to the ECB could have been perceived as a sign of weakness. Joseph Ackermann, head of Deutsche Bank, had also launched the controversy earlier this month stating that he had not presented to the Frankfurt office, wanting to avoid wearing the marks of a "subsidy". Mario Draghi had then replied that it was not "a contest of manhood." For his part, Stuart Gulliver, head of the rich British HSBC, said Monday that he had participated in "solidarity with the euro area". This positive attitude could help widen the circle. According to Oddo Asset Management, the euro zone banks must repay 813 billion worth of loans between 2012 and 2013, of which 270 billion solely for the German banks that had shunned the first wave.

Ultimately, the success of the program seems indisputable Draghi markets. This was an essential prerequisite to avoid chaos. The question is how these banks will inject money into the economy.

ALSO READ:

"Special Report – Crisis: the fear of debt

"The ECB is raising the price of banks in Europe

But these numbers make you dizzy do not stop there. According to information from Parisiende this Friday, players Parisians would also take the upper hand with regard to wages. If this is the side of the Canebière found the most important emoluments (midfielder Lucho Gonzalez for 360,000 euros gross per month), 11 players received wages in the capital to more than 200,000 euros according to the daily gross , 9 against Olympique de Marseille.According to the survey, the highest salaries are in fact looking in the stands payday loan no faxing. For the largest stamp in Paris, would be to … Leonardo. Each month, the sporting director of PSG would receive 400,000 euros gross in fact, about 200,000 euros net. Almost three and a half times what his counterpart perceives Marseille Jose Anigo …

Hours before the "Clasico" between the league leaders in the tenth current is therefore the capital club who won the prize of wages. The findings of this match organized by the newspaper should not fail to elicit reactions to two years of the transition to "financial fair play" in the world of football, which calls among other things, the moderation of the wage bill. From this point of view, the pills of the stars of the French capital, however, reach the peaks found in other European leagues.

U.S. investors, like their counterparts in Europe and Asia, should be particularly attentive to the development of the debt crisis in the eurozone. They should avoid taking risks when to begin a crucial summit on the debt crisis this weekend. Paris and Berlin have announced that Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel would speak well Saturday in Brussels to prepare an "ambitious and comprehensive response" to the crisis. Concrete measures will be considered Sunday to be adopted during a second peak "no later than Wednesday."

Discussions will focus on how to increase the capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), but also on the rescue of Greece.Meanwhile, in Greece, the anti-austerity continues. A new law has been de rigueur in the Greek Parliament voted Thursday.

Summit high risk in Europe

For many observers, however, profound differences remain between France and Germany. "There is no joint proposal" European at the moment, has acknowledged Thursday the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. For his part, President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso called on Europeans to "compromise" to reach decisions "resolved" and "immediate."

Another failure might further undermine investor confidence in the ability of Europeans to fight effectively against the debt crisis.They would now have a highly sensitive situation at the G20 to be held in early November.

Pressure rating agencies

Rating agencies are increasing the pressure on the euro area. After Moody's, S & P raised doubts about the AAA rating of the long-term debt of France. The agency suggests a probable degradation of notes France, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal according to economic conditions no fax pay day loan.

On the macroeconomic front there is no any major indicator on the agenda of U.S. investors on Monday.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro retreated slightly to 1.3741 dollars against 1.3772 dollars on Thursday night. Oil prices were, themselves, up in the wake of the announcement of the disappearance of the former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.The barrel of "light sweet crude" for December delivery gained 71 cents to 86.78 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange while in London, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for December delivery was appreciating eight cents to 109.84 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Earnings up for Microsoft

The side of values, after the close, Microsoft released the first quarter, revenues of $ 17.4 billion, up 7% year on year. Net income reached 5.74 billion, up 6%, while earnings per share rose 10% to $ 0.68.

Sandisk has reported a turnover in the third quarter of $ 1.4 billion, up 15% year on year.Earnings per share were $ 0.96 against $ 1.34 last year.

Altera has recorded sales of 522.5 million dollars in the third quarter, down 1% year on year and down 2% from the previous quarter.

Capital One Financial has released the third quarter net income of $ 813 million against 803 million last year and 911 million in the second quarter.

Chubb Corp in the third quarter earnings per share of $ 1.04 against $ 1.8 last year.For the full year, the U.S. insurer expects operating earnings per share of 5.1 to 5.2 against the dollar from 5.55 to 5.85 dollars in a previous estimate.

Note also, from Monday, October 24, the company Groupon, which specializes in online distribution of discount coupons for shopping in local markets, should do its IPO on the basis of a valuation from October to December billion. However, it is far from the capitalization of 15 to 20 billion, of which Andrew Mason, founder of the company was still dreaming in June.

With the exception of SUD-RATP, who filed a notice of indefinite strike on July 31, no organization has called to stop work in transport.However federations CGT filed a notice with the RATP and SNCF, as well as SUD-Rail, to enable staff who wish to go forward.

Here are the latest traffic forecasts:

• At the SNCF

Tuesday, more than 4 of 5 TGV move on departure or arrival in Paris, except for the Atlantic TGV trains close to 3 to 5, and more than 2 runs a train on the TGV on average province-province.

For Transilien, traffic during rush hour is on average close to 2 trains of 3, and the TER, the traffic is close to 2 of 3 services at the national level. Locally, the traffic is 4 trains of 10 to a near-normal movement between regions.

For Intercités day (including Teoz), traffic is on average a train 2.

No Lunea (national traffic at night) will flow, however the nights of Tuesday to Wednesday.On international routes to night, no disturbance is expected to Germany and Italy. Traffic will also be normal day on the Eurostar (England) and Thalys (Belgium, Germany) and near normal on Lyria (Switzerland).

The other lines of Paris and Paris-Nord-Est have a service close to two out of three trains, and those of Paris-Saint Lazare, Paris-Montparnasse and Paris-Lyon train in two.

• In the RER RATP zone

Traffic is normal on the line A and the interconnection is maintained at Nanterre Prefecture. A train runs on two rush hour on the line B, and a train of four off-peak payday advance lender. Interconnection is suspended from Gare du Nord, but maintained at Nanterre Prefecture.

For portions of RER managed by SNCF, the traffic is normal on the line A (from Nanterre Prefecture in Cergy and Poissy) and Line E.There is a train of two outstanding on lines B and C of the RER, without interconnection to Paris Nord. On line D, it takes two to three trains with an average interconnection between Paris-Lyon and Paris Nord.

• In the metro and bus in Paris

In the metro, the traffic is normal on all lines except line 5, where it takes with two trains of 3.

Traffic is normal on lines 2 and 3 of the tramway. For T1, a train of 2 is outstanding.

• In the province

Strike notices were filed in 39 urban transit systems, including Lille, Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux, Toulouse and Strasbourg.Such notice having been filed in most cases by a single union, the traffic should be only slightly affected.

The notice concerning the networks of the following cities: Amiens, Angers, Angouleme, Belfort, Besançon, Bordeaux, Bourges, Caen, Cannes, Chambery, Dijon, Douai, Lille, Limoges, Lorient (strike 55 minutes), Lyon, Le Mans, Marseille (strike 3:30), Maubeuge, Metz, Montluçon, Montpellier, Moulins Mulhouse, Nantes, Nice (strike from 9 to 12), Nîmes (strike 9:30 to 10:30), Pau, Poitiers, Reims, Rennes, La Rochelle, Rouen, Royan, Saint-Nazaire (strike from 10:30 to 14h), Strasbourg, Toulouse, Tours, Vichy.

• To monitor traffic

Hotlines are available to travelers by SNCF: 0805.90.36.35 for the Outline, TER, Téoz and Intercity, and 0805.70.08.05 for Transilien.

For traffic forecasts, two websites are available: www.sncf.com and www.infolignes.com for all traffic forecasts.

For the RATP, the number is 0800.15.11.11.

Jean-François Jamet – Nobody knows. This is the total blur as both a politically and economically. This will depend on the coming weeks. Today, investors doubted the credibility of the Italian government of Silvio Berlusconi in particular, entangled in scandals about his private life. They do not believe in his ability to find consensus in the short term and implement structural reforms to end a decade of stagnation. Italy is in the situation of a country whose financial situation is very dependent on the psychology of financial markets: the deficit depends on interest rates payable on its debt.

What will happen if Italy does not make structural reforms?

Italian debt will eventually become unsustainable. The risk of panic can not then be excluded.It would then interest rates will soar as investors withdraw massive failure and would become a likely scenario. However, unlike Greece, the risk is lower. First, the country just to pay interest on public debt. Then Italy had a primary surplus, that is to say, it generates a budget surplus, excluding interest payments on public debt. And so if going to Italy the confidence of financial markets – that if the interest rate is not found at high levels (above 6% for bonds to 10 years) – it should not have difficult to stabilize its public debt.Finally, unlike Spain and Ireland, Italy has no problem with private debt.

Just accept the Italian population does a tax increase?

Italy is able to reform itself, it has proved in 1992 and 1993. But if she will be unable Silvio Berlusconi remains in office. The government's failure to carry out structural reforms to boost growth, coupled with the antics of "Il Cavaliere", eventually to exasperate the Italians. As in Spain, early elections must be organized. By this election, a new government must be established: either a national unity government, a government technique, including bureaucrats.This was the case in 1993, a year after the start of the crisis in Italy: the governor of the Italian central bank, no political label, was then elected Chairman and appointed several ministers among its senior officials. The choice of a technical government would nevertheless be a sign that politicians have lost the hand and have not lived up issues.

Finally, is not it a blessing in disguise that the note of Italy was worse?

Paradoxically, Italy can probably say thank you to Standard & Poor's and Moody's. The deterioration of the Italian note the merit of the heart of the debate lack of credibility of Silvio Berlusconi and increase pressure for his departure.While it is regrettable that the rating agencies and interfere in the democratic, political pressure has been mounting in recent months with the electoral success of the opposition and critics of the Confindustria (Italian MEDEF) and even its own majority. One can also regret that the rating agencies and the European states have expected the crisis to sound the alarm about the structural problems that have existed for many years.

Europe can sustainably support it Italy?

It is already doing through the interventions of the European Central Bank to calm speculation on the Italian debt. Once the Member States of the euro area have all ratified the agreement reached in July, the European Financial Stability Fund will take over. However, this support to Italy by its European partners can only buy time.Only reforms and the return to growth will allow Italy to escape the trap of debt inherited from the patronage and corruption which had prevailed during the years 1970 and 1980.

ALSO READ:

"Moody's degrades the Italian nore

"Why Standard & Poor's deteriorating Italy without warning

"The exposure of banks to Italy not worried yet