Jean-François Jamet – Nobody knows. This is the total blur as both a politically and economically. This will depend on the coming weeks. Today, investors doubted the credibility of the Italian government of Silvio Berlusconi in particular, entangled in scandals about his private life. They do not believe in his ability to find consensus in the short term and implement structural reforms to end a decade of stagnation. Italy is in the situation of a country whose financial situation is very dependent on the psychology of financial markets: the deficit depends on interest rates payable on its debt.

What will happen if Italy does not make structural reforms?

Italian debt will eventually become unsustainable. The risk of panic can not then be excluded.It would then interest rates will soar as investors withdraw massive failure and would become a likely scenario. However, unlike Greece, the risk is lower. First, the country just to pay interest on public debt. Then Italy had a primary surplus, that is to say, it generates a budget surplus, excluding interest payments on public debt. And so if going to Italy the confidence of financial markets – that if the interest rate is not found at high levels (above 6% for bonds to 10 years) – it should not have difficult to stabilize its public debt.Finally, unlike Spain and Ireland, Italy has no problem with private debt.

Just accept the Italian population does a tax increase?

Italy is able to reform itself, it has proved in 1992 and 1993. But if she will be unable Silvio Berlusconi remains in office. The government's failure to carry out structural reforms to boost growth, coupled with the antics of "Il Cavaliere", eventually to exasperate the Italians. As in Spain, early elections must be organized. By this election, a new government must be established: either a national unity government, a government technique, including bureaucrats.This was the case in 1993, a year after the start of the crisis in Italy: the governor of the Italian central bank, no political label, was then elected Chairman and appointed several ministers among its senior officials. The choice of a technical government would nevertheless be a sign that politicians have lost the hand and have not lived up issues.

Finally, is not it a blessing in disguise that the note of Italy was worse?

Paradoxically, Italy can probably say thank you to Standard & Poor's and Moody's. The deterioration of the Italian note the merit of the heart of the debate lack of credibility of Silvio Berlusconi and increase pressure for his departure.While it is regrettable that the rating agencies and interfere in the democratic, political pressure has been mounting in recent months with the electoral success of the opposition and critics of the Confindustria (Italian MEDEF) and even its own majority. One can also regret that the rating agencies and the European states have expected the crisis to sound the alarm about the structural problems that have existed for many years.

Europe can sustainably support it Italy?

It is already doing through the interventions of the European Central Bank to calm speculation on the Italian debt. Once the Member States of the euro area have all ratified the agreement reached in July, the European Financial Stability Fund will take over. However, this support to Italy by its European partners can only buy time.Only reforms and the return to growth will allow Italy to escape the trap of debt inherited from the patronage and corruption which had prevailed during the years 1970 and 1980.

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And if the state backed down on these permits is due to law of 13 July.After a major mobilization led by José Bové and the Greens, elected officials voted this summer a law banning the use of controversial mining technique called hydraulic fracturing. The government had thus given two months to holders of operating licenses for shale gas to specify what operating techniques they planned to use.

In both reports, Schuepbach had clearly stated its intention to use hydraulic fracturing, however, prohibited, said Minister of Ecology. In the report of Total, "it was not the case but I made the point that the report was not credible," said Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet. According to the minister, "Total announces to continue to search for shale gas with techniques that are not hydraulic fracturing, or we now know that these techniques are not operational no fax cash loans."

Decision on 13 octobreTotal not digest these ads. "We are very surprised to learn through the press that the government has decided to revoke the exploration permit without Montelimar Total whom the license was awarded in itself has been informed." The State must publish the full effect of those decisions and those on other 61 operating permit on October 13 in the Official Gazette. Thus remains to be seen what will be the decision of the State concerning the 61 other permits still in progress for which the industry had mentioned the use of a hydraulic fracturing technique. If the majority of these licenses relate to the operation of conventional hydrocarbons, twelve are for non-conventional hydrocarbons and potentially gas from coal or oil shale, especially in the Paris basin.

José Bové is awaiting the decision of the state.Already, the Green MEP which combined movement against the gas and oil shale warns that "continued engagement on the ground and before administrative tribunals" in case of maintenance allowed the industrial explicit mention of an appeal to the technique of hydraulic fracturing or operation of these products shale.

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Closing slightly lower on Wall Street should also reassure the markets. The New York Stock Exchange, which remained very cautious, however, has not panicked by the announcement of a good non-manufacturing ISM index. All good news about the health of the U.S. economy are highly valued in a context of fear of a recession in America. As such, investors are waiting to know the details of the Fed's Beige Book, which will be announced tonight.Tomorrow, Thursday, will also be a crucial day in Congress with the speech of President Barack Obama on employment. The CNN already believes that it will propose to spend $ 300 billion to new posts. These new expenditures should be fully offset by budget cuts.

Germany at the center of attention

Side the euro area, all eyes turned to the German Constitutional Court which shall decide on Wednesday on the legality of the financial contribution of Berlin plans to help Europe. The observers could never imagine, however, that the Court considers illegal contributions already provided by Berlin, which would cause a cataclysm in the euro area. Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to comment on the decision of the Court in a speech to the Bundestag in the morning.

The European Commission has also expressed his relief after Tuesday night's decision by the Italian Government's plan to strengthen budgetary discipline, while financial markets doubted the real will of Rome to reduce its deficit. For its part, the Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, acknowledged Tuesday the difficult economic situation, highlighting the problem of Greece, and "tensions" in the markets, but said that Spain 's will not need help.

The single currency was this morning up 0.34% to 1.4055 dollar. It is particularly supported by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to set a floor price of 1.20 francs per euro.Oil side, in the early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 51 cents to 86.53 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 39 cents to 113.28 dollars .

Values ​​to follow on Wednesday

• Banking

Countries in the euro area have no plans for financial support to banks beyond and above what was planned for the financial sector rescue packages in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, have sources said Tuesday the euro area. For its part, Greece wants to extend the powers of its central bank to strengthen bank supervision, hoping to put the sector in the shelter of a worsening debt crisis, according to a bill presented Tuesday.

• Air France-KLM

The company reported passenger traffic up 7.6% in August, a load factor of 85.7% on the month and stability of cargo traffic (-0.2%) with capacity up 2.8%.

• Pernod Ricard

The group said they did not consider major strategic acquisitions before next summer at least.

• Scor

The reinsurer expects to achieve a volume of gross written premiums, equivalent to sales of 10 billion euros in 2013, against 6.7 billion in 2010, according to a statement posted Wednesday on the occasion of a day devoted investors.

• Sodexo

The group, a global leader in catering, has announced the acquisition of Puras do Brasil, Brazil's number two industry, in a statement.With this self-financed operation, Sodexo will become number one in Brazil, a rapidly growing market where Puras do Brasil realizes a turnover of half a billion euros.

• Valeo

The group announced its intention to repurchase up to 670,000 of its shares to a maximum of 22.5 million euros in connection with operations authorized by the General Assembly in June These shares will be allocated for the implementation of any plan of options to purchase shares in the allocation of shares in respect of participation or implementation of any company savings plan.

• Biomérieux

The group released a consolidated net profit up 3.7% to 75 million euros in the first half and said forecast for 2011 organic growth in sales of around 5%, against a previous target of +5% or + 6%, in a context of weak European economy and the U.S..

• Boiron

The specialist in homeopathy said the uncertainties in the economic environment for caution in its annual outlook after a deuixème trimesre marked by a 3.3% decline in sales. This decline in activity, combined with an increase in personnel costs and a continued investment in advertising, led to a fall of 92.5% of operating profit in the first half of the year.

• Transgene

The specialist therapeutic vaccines has announced a net loss dug to 17.7 million in the first half, against -14.5 million a year earlier, but said he expected a second part of a year rich in results and starting clinical trials.

Indeed, the creditor banks in Greece will contribute to a further aid to this country to the tune of 135 billion euros over 30 years, said French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the end of a summit of the euro zone in Brussels . "In total, the effort will be 135 billion over 30 years" only for private creditors of Greece, he said. The assistance will be 54 billion euros over three years (mid 2011-2014).

The leaders of the euro area showed a "firm commitment" in favor of Greece at their summit, also said French President Nicolas Sarkozy during a press conference."We decided to support Greece as a member of the euro and the euro area. It is a strong commitment "said Nicolas Sarkozy.

Proposals to improve governance

Proposals to improve the governance of the euro area will be made "before the end of summer" with German Chancellor Angela Merkel also announced French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Chancellor Angela "Merkel and I are agreed on the need to advance economic governance in the coming weeks so ambitious and proactive," said Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters. "Before the end of the summer, we will make proposals.(…) Our aim is to seize the opportunity of the Greek crisis to make a qualitative leap in the governance of the euro area, "he added, without giving details cashadvance.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will participate in the financing plan, according to President of the European Union (EU) Herman Van Rompuy. "We have reached agreement on a new aid program to fully cover the financing needs" of Greece, which "will be funded by both the EU and the IMF," he told a press conference.

Trichet welcomed the new plan

For his part Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, welcomed the new aid package of nearly 160 billion euros decided to Greece, holding "crucial" to stabilize the economy.The new support program of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund is crucial to stabilize public finances "of Greece and" to ensure the sustainability of public debt "of the country, he told reporters after a summit the euro area.

He also welcomed the fact that the private sector to plan aid is limited to only Greece and is not intended for other countries. The ECB had expressed concern in recent months of such a contribution, seeing a potential for worsening of the debt crisis.

Also present in Brussels, Christine Lagarde, the new director general of the IMF said the institution would continue "to play its part" to help Athens.Christine Lagarde, who praised "the significant support to the growth and financial stability" of Heads of State and Government of the euro area and financial institutions, said in a statement that any new aid was subject to Athens the will of the Board of the IMF.

For despite the vote tonight, Greece remains in a serious situation. The country needs to pass before June 30, the austerity plan that provides savings of 28.4 billion and 50 billion privatization until 2015.Persistent concerns explaining the lack of investor optimism since the beginning of June.

At the macroeconomic level, the announcement of an increase in the INSEE industrial morale in June, was not enough to give a positive trend. Industrial orders in the euro area rebounded 0.7% in April from the previous month, said Wednesday the EU statistics office Eurostat.en March, they had recorded their first decline in six months, 1.5 %. Eurostat has slightly revised its initial estimate, which gave an even stronger decline of 1.8%. On the macroeconomic front, investors should exercise great caution before the press conference of the U.S. central bank in the evening.The economic outlook in the United States could be scaled down and the Fed is expected to confirm the end of the support measures.

As for currencies, the vote of confidence of the Greek Parliament supports a slight decline in the European currency. The euro fell slightly against the dollar on Wednesday, suffering from profit taking after the sharp rise the previous day. Around 11:00 in Paris, the single European currency was worth 1.4401 dollars against 1.4408 late Tuesday.

In terms of oil, the news does not really have an impact on price developments, mixed Wednesday. Relieved by the vote of confidence, the market is wait until the end of the meeting of the American Fed. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for August delivery lost 46 cents to 93.71 dollars.That of Brent North Sea crude for August delivery gained 31 cents to 111.26 dollars.

Carrefour degraded

Carrefour (-1.52%, 26.89 euros) Moody's said Tuesday it had downgraded the outlook from stable to negative. Yesterday, at a general meeting stormy, the splitting of Dia was approved while the shareholders voted in favor of renewing the businessman Bernard Arnault on the board.The current Group Chief Executive, Lars Olofsson, will take over the chairmanship of the board of directors in place of Amaury de Seze.

EADS (+0.11% at 21.78 euros): Louis Welsh, CEO of EADS, the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday that the European aircraft manufacturer plans to save the day at the Paris Air Show orders for its A380, the largest airliner in service in the world.

Total (-0.76% to 38.58 euros) assigned to a consortium of most of its petroleum distribution assets in the UK, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, for about 450 million.

Societe Generale (-0.87% to 39.82 euros). Shareholders representing 68% of the shares of the group opted for the 2010 dividend payment for new shares.The number of new shares issued for payment of the dividend is 23,901,432 shares, representing 3.2% of current capital of SocGen.

The title was up Altran Technologies (3.01% to 5.51 euros) on the Paris market on Wednesday midday, taking advantage of the positive outlook of analysts following a meeting with the new CEO of technology consulting .

The Tanner (suspended) Qatar Luxury Group has launched a simplified tender offer for the remaining capital of leather goods at the same price of 6.51 euros per share. He already holds 54.73% stake in the Tanner, whose listing is suspended.

Areva (-1.71% to 25.61 euros) The Supervisory Board endorsed the group's arrival Tuesday in place of Luc Oursel Anne Lauvergeon. This should also not give up his severance pay.

During the final debate, which were to continue late into the night or Saturday, the members have changed two important points of the original text of the government, which will have a direct impact on taxpayers.

30,000 euros per decade

Proposed by the Rapporteur-General Budget, Gilles Carrez, the shield will reverse charge from 2011. Specifically, beneficiaries under the shield of their 2010 income will be imputed directly to their ISF, payable before September 30. Until now, the reverse charge was voluntary, and beneficiaries of the shield receiving a refund check from the treasury for several months after paying all their taxes.By forcing taxpayers to deduct that amount directly from their ISF, the government is spared thus a new controversy over the amount of refund checks that were received by a few large fortunes during the spring 2012 presidential election in full.

In addition, Members noted the reduction in ISF for each dependent child (including the majors pursuing studies), raising it to 300 euros against 150 euros previously.

The second set of changes to the law on donations of money. On the proposal of the Government, members agreed to authorize the renewal every ten years of the exemption from transfer taxes on gifts less than 30,000 euros.Since the law Tepa the summer of 2007, it is possible to donate money to his children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, or failure of issue to his nephews and nieces, without incurring tax (ie, without paying gift tax). And that, provided the donation does not exceed 31 865 euros and that certain rules are respected age. It's sort of a particular form of donation.

The government amendment relaxes the system. Thus, in case of gift to a child, the parent must have less than 80 years, and not, as now, less than 65 years. This threshold of 80 years is also one that is already applied to gifts to grandchildren or great-grandchildren. In addition, the amendment authorizes such gifts of money tax-free every ten years, whereas previously this could only be done once.The cost of this measure is estimated by the government between 20 and 30 million euros from 2017. It is in effect from that date that the first donors who benefited from this measure in 2007 will give back to their descendants. Good news however for holders of life insurance. Gilles Carrez's proposal to raise 20 to 25% taxation of life insurance in case of death, to the heritage of over 903 000 euros, was rejected.

The solemn vote of the Act is expected Tuesday.

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The French may also receive other support weight this afternoon: the head of state held talks with British Prime Minister, David Cameron, and it could send a positive signal by this evening.

The strategy of the Elysee has evolved over the last few hours. Paris does not want to appear as the maneuver on this issue, as the image of France has been tarnished by the DSK case. We simply observe and thus encourage sub hand movements favor Christine Lagarde.

Especially, the executive is awaiting the outcome of the preliminary inquiry about the case Tapie conducted by the Court of Justice of the Republic, which is expected to fall by 4 to 6 weeks. This fits perfectly well with the international agenda: the G8 meeting next week in Deauville, under French presidency could send a first signal for a European candidate, the EU summit on June 23 and 24 could be an opportunity for Europe to appoint their candidate. Christine Lagarde has five more weeks to wait before knowing his fate: Washington or the Court of Justice of the Republic?

The startup has warned that its growth could slow in the future, investment is expected to increase the capacity of the site. The site could not even be beneficial shareholder this year. In 2010, it has recorded fifteen million dollars profit on a turnover of 243 million. This income was 78 million in 2008.It has also surpassed the hundred million registered end-March, with 102 million accounts online payday loan lenders.

Some analysts remain skeptical of the optimism LinkedIn whose business model is based on recruiting, marketing solutions and profiles "premium" pay, is very different from sites like Facebook or Zynga, very popular with investors, who rather seek to consume their users via their interfaces. Despite these differences, the IPO of LinkedIn will probably be a good barometer for gauging the success of quotations from other social networks, eagerly awaited.

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Mohammed bin Laden, Osama's father, made his fortune in construction and public works. At the latter's death in 1967, the leader of al-Qaeda share the inheritance with her 54 brothers and sisters. In all, Osama Bin Laden "received between 12 and 15 million dollars" between 1974 and 1994, according to Yeslam bin Laden, one of his half-brothers.

Present in 35 countries

Some of the funding received has been reinvested in other companies in Saudi Arabia or Sudan, thereby making a profit.Osama bin Laden had created a parent company, Wadi al Aqiz, head of a network of numerous legal societies and implanted in nearly thirty-five countries.

The Ladin International Company, an import and export, Taba Investment and Hijra Construction Company, specializing in construction are among the largest subsidiaries of the businessman terrorist. But these companies also served as cover for militants of al-Qaida. They fund training camps or buying weapons and receive "gifts" from Islamic banks branched through accounts and offshore tax havens.

From multinationals to SMEs

With the end of the first Gulf War in 1991, and the installation of U.S. bases on Saudi soil, Bin Laden decided to conduct a holy war against the United States. Replica of Washington and its alies: its funds are now tracked.Bin Laden fled to Sudan from 1994 to 1996. He bought land, invested in small business. Like the international financial network created in the 1980s, these companies often have two facets. Peanut farm houses a terrorist training site.

Managed well, business does not rotate at best. Bin Laden is forced to lower wages and to sell certain subsidiaries. No matter: "Terrorism is a low cost business," writes the Wall Street Journal in September 2001. The attack against the World Trade Center in 1993, would cost only $ 10,000.

Expelled from Sudan in 1996 under pressure from the Americans, bin Laden returned to Afghanistan. This second exile seems to coincide with increased financial difficulties on the ground. The branch of al-Qaida in London would have experienced problems paying their phone bills.For many decades, "Bin Laden has engaged in activities that eat money, but do not create," says the Saudi dissident Muhammad al-Massari, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Still, bin Laden also benefits from the charity to Muslims around the world, but that they know so far that their donations would be used to finance terrorism. Moreover, according to a diplomatic report from 2009 revealed by Wikileaks, the Americans suspect of private foundations in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar to finance terrorism without limit. The villa in which Bin Laden has spent his last days, near Islamabad, is estimated at nearly one million dollars.

Meanwhile, the government clearly adjudicated in favor of electrical lights: it was still estimated at 42 euros per MWh the full cost of nuclear power (operation, maintenance, future investments …), while its competitors, GDF Suez head, had set the bar at 35 euros, in line with the current regulated rates.

The reaction of GDF Suez has been immediate. The other French energy giant said that "this election will penalize customers who will experience increases for electricity prices." Convergence expected by 2015 between regulated tariffs and prices Arenh (restricted to nuclear power history) will increase mechanics first.The consumer association UFC-Que Choisir dread even price shock, "a rumor, according to Eric Besson, which I would like to help twist the fact."

Also in the eyes of GDF Suez, the high level of Arenh prevent the establishment of effective competition in electricity supply in France. In these circumstances, the group will study the consequences of that decision and the possible ways to overcome the narrowness of the market opening in the short term induced by the choices of government. "

Another competing operator EDF, Direct Energy (which serves over 600,000 clients), however, shows less severe. Its president, Xavier Caitucoli welcomes first that law enforcement has not been postponed, as had been discussed earlier this month. "After several years the French market was locked, the start of the competition has really come.At 42 euros, it is possible for a competitive operator, although it will be difficult, "he says.

Seasonality

Xavier Caitucoli, it should also not focus too much on the price of Arenh: "The product is also very important and the fact that the volumes of energy vary according to seasonality will make it attractive." Sub- understood: in winter, when electricity prices are very high on the wholesale market, Direct Energy will be able to provide through Arenh on much more interesting.

In this issue, which collects opinions shared, all players meet at least the fact that the accident Fukushima weighed a heavy weight."Somehow, the government has anticipated that the audit of EDF plants could lead to huge additional costs of maintenance and needed to be reflected in the selling price of electricity."