Humanity depletes natural resources
If humanity continues its momentum, it will consume in 2050 three times more raw materials than today. "Far beyond what is bearable." The warning is clear. And it does not derive from Lester Brown, president of Earth Policy Institute, which multiplies the books for decades on the depletion of the planet or the WWF or Greenpeace, but the UN.
In forty years, some 9 billion people consume 140 billion tons of minerals, hydrocarbons and biomass (wood, crops, livestock), as reported by the UNEP (United Nations Environment). Or 16 tons of natural resources swallowed each year by each person on the planet."Policymakers and the general public are still not convinced of the absolute physical limits on the amount of resources available to humanity," the authors note, a dozen experts led by an Austrian and a South African.
Doing more with less
To avoid shortages and social tensions and geopolitical they would generate, the world must "do more with less." Sustained growth requires massive investment in "technological innovation, financial and social." One difficulty lies in the considerable disparity in the exploitation of raw materials. An inhabitant of an industrialized country consumes an average 16 tons per year, four times more than Indian.
In rich countries, the differences are equally impressive.A consumer of Qatar, Australia and the United States swallows 40 tons of natural resources per year when a French, a German or an Italian uses about 15 tons. These figures do not reflect the reality only partially, note the rapporteurs of the UN. For a tonne of copper extracted in Chile will be charged to the consumer in their calculation Chilean even if it is used to manufacture a product sold in China or Europe. These methodological weaknesses therefore do not change the risk of global depletion of natural resources. Even if industrialized countries were able to halve their consumption of raw materials by 2050, not living to 8 tons, and that developing countries joined this level without exceeding the total amount to 70 billion tons, or 40% more than today.This scenario (No. 2 in the graphics) would be accompanied by a doubling of greenhouse gas emissions, a path inconsistent with the objectives of the international community in the fight against global warming.
Amid these grim prospects for the environment, the UN report uncovers some reasons not to despair. The global trend towards urbanization is paradoxically supports better use of natural resources. A densely populated area per capita is more economical building materials, energy and transportation, the experts argue.
Another reason for optimism, emerging skip some stages of development by adopting technologies directly or models that consume less raw materials, how they embraced the mobile phone have not finished building the fixed telephone network.